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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 192242

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 04N37W to 02N49W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N
to 09N between 10W and 25W. 


A digging mid to upper level trough is moving across the eastern
Gulf. This is supporting a frontal boundary which extends from 
the Ft. Myers, Florida coast near 27N82W to the western Gulf near 
22N96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
in the central Gulf along and south of the boundary from 22N to 
27N between 84W to 91W. This convection is producing frequent 
lightning and likely gusty winds and locally rough seas. Exercise 

Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the frontal boundary
with light to gentle winds south of the boundary. Seas are slight
to moderate across the basin. Dense haze is also occurring in the
western and central Gulf from agricultural fires in Mexico, 
including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary and associated weather 
will continue to shift E to SE across the eastern Gulf, reaching 
the vicinity of the Florida Keys Mon night and the Straits of 
Florida Tue. Winds are likely to be gusty along with rough seas in
and near the shower and thunderstorm activity. Meanwhile, hazy 
conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across 
most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally 
fresh SE return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tue 
through Fri night. 


Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by high pressure
northeast of the Caribbean. This is supporting widespread fresh to
strong E to NE winds in the south-central basin, including the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Additionally,
fresh to locally strong winds are occurring north of Hispaniola 
and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade 
winds prevail. Seas 3 to 5 ft are noted across the rest of the
basin. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW basin off the
Colombia coast, with most of the convective activity happening in
the Pacific. 

Dense haze caused from agricultural fires in Mexico is noted
across portions of the NW Caribbean, northward from the northern
coast of Honduras to southern Quintana Roo, including the Gulf of

For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish to 
fresh speeds Mon morning. The fresh to strong E winds in the 
south-central Caribbean will shift eastward to offshore of NW 
Venezuela through Tue night and diminish early on Wed. A rather 
vigorous deep layer trough will dig southward across the western 
Caribbean Mon night through Fri, and support very active weather 
over the central portions E of 80W Tue through Fri, perhaps a 
little longer. This feature is likely to induce a surface trough 
in the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will 
develop in the central Caribbean Tue and shift eastward through 
Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds, but remain gusty. 
Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues 
across the Gulf of Honduras, but appears to be thinning out some.


A frontal boundary extends from 31N73W to the West Palm Beach,
Florida coast. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted off
the SW N Atlantic, including across the east coast of Florida, N
of 25N and W of 68W. Frequently lightning can be expected with
these storms in addition to gusty winds and locally rough seas.
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted across this
area outside of the strong thunderstorms. 

In the central Atlantic, surface ridging extends over the area
anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure near 35N28W. A trough extends
from 31N54W to 26N66W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
ahead of this trough from 26N to 31N between 47W and 52W. Moderate
winds are also noted east of the trough. A second trough is
analyzed from 31N41W to 26N42W. Light to gentle winds prevail N of
20N with moderate E winds S of 20N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted
across the central Atlantic. 

In the eastern Atlantic, the 1023 mb high pressure is also
influencing this area. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted across
the Africa coast to 30W. W of 30W, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Seas are to 4 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak front off the coast of Florida 
will slowly continue southward through Tue. Scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms along and near the trough will shift 
south with the trough affecting the waters east of florida to the 
Bahamas and south of about 28N. Behind this feature, a new front 
will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE 
Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and stall from near 
31N72W to SE Florida late Tue. A trough will develop southeast of 
the weakening front and extend into the central Bahamas early on 
Wed, and drift eastward through Fri night. Low pressure is 
expected to form along the trough near 24N68W Thu evening and move
NE through Fri night.