Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 020508

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0450 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between 1021
mb high pressure to the north of the area near 28N61W and 1006 mb
low pressure over Colombia is leading to strong trade winds over
the south-central Caribbean. Gale conditions are occurring early
this morning offshore Colombia, with another pulse of gales
expected overnight tonight. Seas this morning will peak near 15
ft within the gale area.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 1014 mb
low in the NW Gulf near 27N94W to near Tampico Mexico. A recent
ASCAT pass from around 02/0300 UTC indicates that gale force N
winds are already occurring in the waters offshore of Tampico
Mexico north of the front. These gales will reach the waters
offshore Veracruz Mexico later this morning as the cold front
moves southward along the coast of Mexico. Seas will build to
10-12 ft this morning. Conditions will improve late tonight.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are expected Wed through
Wed night in the western Atlantic, north of 26N, in association
with an area of low pressure and an attendant cold front. Expect
gales on both sides of the low and front as they move eastward on
Wed. By Wed night, the front will extend from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas. Seas in the area of the gales will build to 12
to 15 ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details about these Gale Warnings.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N17W to 03N24W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 03N-06N between 22W-30W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 31W-49W.


A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to a 1014 mb low
pressure near 27N94W to Tampico Mexico. Scattered showers are
along and north of the front from the coast of Texas to the
Florida Big Bend. The latest ASCAT pass from around 02/0300 UTC
indicates that gale force winds are already occurring offshore
Tampico. Near gale force N winds are elsewhere near the coast of
NE Mexico between Brownsville and Tampico. See above for details
on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf of Mexico. The ASCAT data show
gentle winds covering the southern Gulf to the south of the cold
front. Strong NE winds are north of the front over the NE and
north-central Gulf.

The cold front extending from the low pressure to Tampico will
continue moving southward through the SW Gulf early this morning.
Gale-force winds will continue near Tampico early this morning,
then develop near the Veracruz area later this the morning. The
front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by tonight, and from Tampa Bay Florida to near
the NW Yucatan Peninsula on Wed. The front will move across the
SE Gulf Wed night into Thu. 


Mid-level ridging dominates the western Caribbean, leading to
subsidence and dry conditions. An upper-level trough extends from
the central Atlantic to the NE Caribbean Sea. This is enhancing
scattered clouds and isolated showers across the eastern
Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass from Monday evening shows strong
trades across the central Caribbean, generally south of 16N
between 72W-79W. Strong NE winds are also seen in the Mona
Passage. Fresh trades are elsewhere from 10N-18N, with gentle to
moderate E winds in the NW Caribbean, south of Cuba and in the
Yucatan Channel. Gale force winds are expected early this morning
offshore Colombia. See above for details on the Gale Warning.
Seas are 8-11 ft across the central Caribbean, except for 11-13
ft offshore of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean
and in the Gulf of Honduras.

Minimal gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
early this morning, and then again tonight. Fresh to strong trade
winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through this morning.
Fresh to strong winds will continue to blow across the remainder
of the south-central Caribbean through the weekend.


In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N76W to
Jacksonville Florida. Scattered moderate showers are near and
north of the front. Fresh NNW winds are to the north of this
front offshore of Georgia. A 1021 mb high pressure is near
28N61W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure westward
to the NW Bahamas to South Florida. Gentle anticyclonic winds are
observed over the western Atlantic from 23N-29N. Fresh to locally
strong NE-E winds are across the waters south of 22N, and these
winds will continue through early this morning. In the eastern
Atlantic, a stationary front is analyzed from 32N34W to 29N40W to
26N44W. A surface trough continues from 26N44W to 17N48W. An
upper-level trough axis is from 31N37W to 25N42W to the NE
Caribbean Sea. Upper-level diffluence well to the southeast of
the upper-trough axis is leading to scattered showers from 
08N-23N between 28W-48W. A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over
the Madeira Islands. Seas are currently 6 to 8 ft over most of
the Atlantic, except 4-6 ft near surface ridge along 27/28N
across the western half of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front from 32N76W to Jacksonville
Florida will reach from 31N68W to near Cape Canaveral shortly
after sunrise this morning. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will
follow the front, forecast to extend as a stationary front across
28N by this evening. The front will transition to a warm front in
response to low pressure forecast to move off the coast of the
Carolinas on early Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen
and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across
the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded
and followed by strong to minimal gale-force winds and building
seas. See above for details on the Gale Warning in the western
Atlantic. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build
over the area through Fri night. North swell will continue to
support seas of 6-8 ft over the tropical Atlantic waters east of
the Windward Islands through Tue. A second swell event will reach
the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Thu night and
continue through the weekend, with seas of 7-10 ft possible.


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 02-Mar-2021 05:08:31 UTC