Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 220514

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 24.1N 66.3W at 22/0300 UTC
or 500 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 20N- 
25N between 64W-67W. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry 
is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Little change in 
strength is forecast during the next several days. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 
KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 60W and S of 16N is 
moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict 
this wave well. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 
08N-14N between 55W-64W. Recent satellite-derived surface wind 
data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance 
is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern 
portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is 
expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression 
or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and 
then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to 
turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on 
Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong 
gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the
next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across 
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this 
disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be 
required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and 
the Virgin Islands on Sunday. This system has a high chance for 
tropical development during the next 48 hours.

A tropical wave over west Africa with axis along 15W and S of 19N
is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is from 07N-15N between 11W-19W. The tropical wave is expected to
move off the west coast of Africa overnight and on Sunday. 
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of the wave
once it moves over water, and a tropical depression or tropical 
storm is expected to form during the early or middle part of next 
week while moving westward to west-northwestward across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance for 
tropical development during the next 48 hours.


An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 31W and S of 19N is 
moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depicts 
this wave well. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to 09N30W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to the coast of
French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection mentioned in
the sections above, widely scattered moderate convection is from
05N-10N between 20W-29W. 


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb 
high centered off the coast of Virginia near 37N70W. This feature
is keeping an east to southeast surface flow across much of the 
Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong 
E winds over the eastern Gulf north of 24N and east of 90W, while 
gentle to moderate winds prevail farther south and west. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is over the SE Gulf, S Florida, and 
the Straits of Florida. An upper-level trough is over the E Gulf 
with upper level diffluence over the SE Gulf enhancing convection.

High pressure centered along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. 
will dominate the Gulf waters into the start of next week. The 
pressure gradient remain quite tight over the eastern Gulf through
Sun afternoon, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and 
building seas. New high pressure will develop over the northern 
Gulf early next week, causing the pressure gradient to weaken and 
wind and sea conditions to improve through the middle of the week.


A 1011 mb surface low is centered just east of the eastern tip of
Jamaica near 19N76W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the low. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is elsewhere along the north coast of Hispaniola and Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of N Colombia from
13N-15N between 71W-74W. Scattered moderate convection is inland
over S Guatemala, El Salvador, W Honduras, and W Nicaragua.
Scattered showers are over Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia and the
SW Caribbean S of 11N mostly due to the East Pacific monsoon 
trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds 
across much of the basin.

Large northerly swell will continue to pass through the NE 
Caribbean passages through the remainder of the weekend. A strong 
tropical wave along 59W is likely to form into low pressure as it 
crosses the Windward Islands tonight through Sun, bringing gale 
conditions to portions of the area. There is a high chance that 
this feature will develop into a tropical cyclone through the 
weekend, and a high chance early next week as it moves WNW or NW 
through the E Caribbean. 


Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Tropical Storm Jerry. 

A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N52W to 28N63W. A
stationary front continues to 24N74W. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 29N45W. The tail end of a stationary front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N16W to 26N33W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the front. 

Tropical Storm Jerry near 24.1N 66.3W 1002 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Jerry 
will move to 25.4N 67.1W Sun morning, 26.7N 67.8W Sun evening and 
28.0N 68.0W Mon morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as 
it turns northward away from the area Mon afternoon, then approach
Bermuda Tue, and move farther way into the central North Atlantic
Wed and Thu. Meanwhile, large remnant northerly swell will 
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters N of the Bahamas 
through Sunday.


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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Sep-2019 05:14:42 UTC