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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 212247

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.


Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough will
dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea today through Wed 
then lift out to the northeast through Fri. This feature is 
expected to destabilize the atmosphere, and support very active 
convection across the south-central Caribbean beginning today,
with strong afternoon convection across the Greater Antilles. 
Convection is then expected to develop north and northeastward 
across the central Caribbean and Greater Antilles, from Jamaica 
and eastern Cuba, to western Puerto Rico, Wed through Fri. Latest 
computer model guidance currently suggests that the highest 
rainfall accumulations with this event may occur across 
Hispaniola. Residents in these locations should remain alert for 
significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer 
to your local weather office for more specific information.


A monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 04N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 10W
and 38W. 


Isolated moderated convection is depicted over the SE Gulf
including the Straits of Florida in association to a surface 
trough across the area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure extends 
from the eastern U.S. into the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds prevail across the Gulf, with slight seas. Hazy 
conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across 
most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin 
through the end of the week, with moderate to locally fresh E to 
SE winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds 
E of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Fri and Sat.


Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about Significant Rainfall Event in the Caribbean. 

A deep layered upper trough along 75W extends from the western 
Atlantic to western Cuba, and is digging southward across the NW 
Caribbean. This feature has initiated numerous moderate to strong
convection across the waters between Hispaniola and Cuba, N of 14N
between 72W and 80W. Weak high pressure ridge prevails just N of 
the area, to the E of 74W. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressure over northern South America is supporting 
fresh to locally strong trade winds across the central and eastern
basin, E of 76W. Seas in this area are 6 to 8 ft. W of 76W, 
easterly winds are moderate to locally fresh with seas 4 to 7 ft. 
Otherwise, gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist across the 
southwestern basin and north of the Cayman Islands. 

Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate
haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America 
are causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the 
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the deep layer trough will will support active 
weather across the central portions of the basin, and will 
gradually shift NE through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in 
the central Caribbean will shift northeastward through Thu while 
diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural 
fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, 
but continue to thin out.


A surface trough extends across the northern waters, from 30N74W 
to a 1012 mb low pressure near 28N75W then continues across the 
Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is depicted S of 30N between 59W and 76W, supported by a deep 
layered upper trough. Moderate NE winds prevail across the waters 
NW of the trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area.

In the central Atlantic, 1026 mb high pressure is centered over 
the eastern Atlantic near 33N24W, and extends a ridge W-SW to near
24N64W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail within the 
ridge between 20N and 30W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft within the ridge. 
South of 20N, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds
prevail, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. 

In the eastern Atlantic E of 35W, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail N of 24N between 35W and 25W with seas to 4 ft. Fresh to 
strong NE winds prevail off the Africa coast to 20W, with moderate
to fresh winds prevailing between 20W and 35W. Seas range 6 to 9

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned trough will weaken 
midweek. Another trough will develop just southeast of the trough 
and extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then drift eastward 
through Thu night. Moderate winds and seas will prevail in the 
western Atlantic with the trough through midweek. Weak low 
pressure is expected to develop just N of Hispaniola Thu night and
shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by moderate to fresh winds 
and active weather.