000
AXNT20 KNHC 301752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic through the 
southern Guinea-Bissau coast near 12N16W and continues 
southwestward to 04N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The
ITCZ then continues southwestward to the coast of Brazil near
01N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring from the Equator to 08N between 00W and 17W. More
scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 NM of both 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 17W and 35W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW
Caribbean near 10N83W and extends to the Colombia Low analyzed 
near 10N76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed in the SW Caribbean S of 11N.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A diurnal surface trough is analyzed from 25N94W southwestward
to near Veracruz, Mexico. Winds across much of the Gulf are from
the E to SE and sustained at moderate to fresh speeds, with fresh
to locally strong ESE winds occurring to the east of the trough 
per recent scatterometer data. Seas are 3-6 ft across the majority
of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas closer to the coasts of Florida, 
Alabama, and Mississippi, as well as near the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters this week. Its associated gradient will maintain moderate 
to fresh east to southeast winds over the basin for the next few 
days. East winds will pulse to strong speeds north of the Yucatan 
peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche at tonight through Fri 
night in association with a diurnal trough. Moderate to fresh east
winds and moderate seas are expected over the Straits of Florida 
through Thu night. Winds elsewhere will begin to diminish Fri and 
into the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the 
NE Gulf Sat night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Aside from the convection mentioned in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section, upper level troughing extending across the central to 
eastern Caribbean supports scattered showers across areas E of 
74W. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E to NE
winds prevailing across the central and W Caribbean, with gentle 
to moderate trades elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft across 
the basin, locally up to 7 ft off the NW coast of Colombia. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with 
the Colombian Low will support pulsing fresh to strong trades at 
night over the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu 
night. Elsewhere, rather quiet conditions are expected over the 
forecast waters through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N51W and extends
southwestward to 26N58W where it becomes a stationary front. The
stationary front then continues southwestward to 21N68W. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed from 27N55W southwestward to the
Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead
of both of these features, in a region N of 25N between 48W and
the cold front. Scattered showers are also observed in the
vicinity of these features. Winds behind the front are from the NE
and sustained at moderate to fresh speeds, with seas behind the
front analyzed at 4-8 ft. NE winds are fresh to strong between 
the Bahamas and Cuba, including through the Florida Straits. Winds
across areas from the front eastward to about 45W and N of 17N 
are from the SE, sustained at moderate to locally fresh speeds and
accompanied by by seas of 4-7 ft.

The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is under
the influence of ridging stemming from a pair of highs north of
the area. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds and seas of 8-12
ft prevail across a region N of 17N between the W coast of Africa
and 45W, except for areas between the Canary Islands and Africa 
where seas are 4-8 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 
moderate seas prevail across the Atlantic S of 17N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
31N52W to 21N68W will begin to weaken Thu. A surface trough is 
just ahead of the front and extends from 27N55W to near Guadeloupe
in the Lesser Antilles. High pressure west of these features will
remain about stationary through Thu, then begin to shift eastward
into the weekend. The front and trough are forecast to merge near
55W on Thu. A weak low may develop along the trough axis on Fri. 
This will induce fresh northeast winds north of 27N and east of 
65W from Fri morning into the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold 
front may emerge off the U.S. southeastern coast late Sat night 
into Sun. 

$$
Adams