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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 041032

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N12W to 04N14W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N14W to 03N17W to 05N29W. Another segment of 
the ITCZ is along 05N38W to 03N46W. A surface trough is along 
12N35W to 02N36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 04N to 13N between 20W and 38W. Isolated showers 
elsewhere from 14N southward and 50W eastward.


A cold front extends southward from a 1018 low in SE Louisiana 
near 30N90W to 19N91W. Strong northerly winds are west of the 
frontal boundary with seas 10-11 ft in the Bay of Campeche. 
Widespread light to moderate embedded shower activity in multi-
layer cloudiness is east of the front. 

The cold front will move slowly across the basin through 
Saturday. Strong N to NW winds are expected to persist west of 
the front through this evening. The front will weaken as it 
exits the SE Gulf Saturday night. A surface trough will develop 
near the Mexican coast Saturday night and drift east to along 
94W south of 26N by early Sun. Strong to near gale force NW to N 
winds are expected west of the trough through Sun. A deepening 
upper level trough is expected to induce cyclogenesis in the SE 
Gulf of Mexico on Monday, with a developing low pressure system 
moving across Florida Monday night.


A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage, 
south of Cuba to the Cayman Islands. Widely scattered moderate 
convection associated with the front is in the NW part of the 
Caribbean Sea from 16N northward and Haiti westward. The monsoon 
trough is along 10N from 73W in N Colombia to beyond Costa Rica. 
Isolated showers are associated with the monsoon trough. 

The stationary front is expected to dissipate later today. Fresh 
easterly winds and seas to 7-8 ft will prevail north of the 
front this morning. Fresh trade winds are expected across the 
central Caribbean through Sat. Another cold front will reach the 
Yucatan Channel on Monday, and move across the NW Caribbean on 


A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center near 
31N57W to 26N61W, then continues as a stationary front to the 
Windward Passage near 20N74W. Isolated showers are evident on 
either side of the frontal boundary. Broad upper level cyclonic 
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between 
40W and 60W. A surface trough curves from 30N53W to 25N50W to 
17N48W. A second surface trough is along 46.5W from 08N to 16N. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N 
to 22N between 38W and 46W. Broken to overcast multi-layered 
clouds and isolated moderate showers are elsewhere from 14N to 
27N between 40W and 53W. 

The front will gradually dissipate through Saturday. Strong 
southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida tonight. A 
cold front will extend from 31N74W to central Florida on Sat, 
then weaken from 29N65W to near Miami Florida on Sun. A low 
pressure system emerging from the SE Gulf of Mexico on Monday 
will sweep a strong cold front across the western Atlantic 
Monday  night through Tuesday night. Strong W to NW winds and 
building seas are expected west of this front early next week.