AXNT20 KNHC 011806
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tight gradient between the Atlantic High and lower pressure across
N Africa has been producing gale winds near the Canary Islands and
Agadir, and W of the coast of W Sahara and Morocco. A Gale
Warning issued by Meteo-France for the nearby marine areas remains
in effect through at least 02/0300 UTC. Expect N to NE winds of
Force 8 on the Beaufort Scale with rough seas. Please see the High
Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html for more
A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 19N
southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 07N to 14N between 18W and 22W.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 21N southward
and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 04N to 06N between 31W and 38W.
A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 16N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 08N between 43W and 46W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from W Jamaica southward
across E Panama to the Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
No significant convection is present in the Caribbean and over
A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche near 92W, southward
across SE Mexico to the Pacific Ocean and moving W near 15 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the bay.
A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to
10N37W to 07N46W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N36W to 07N51W,
just N of the French Guiana-Brazil border. Scattered moderate
convection is present S of the monsoon trough 05N to 10N between
22W and 30W, and also near the ITCZ from 06N to 08N between 46W
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough reaches west-southwestward from Georgia across
the Florida Panhandle to near New Orleans. Convergent surface
winds near and W of this feature are triggering scattered showers
and thunderstorms near the Texas-Louisiana border and adjacent
waters, and also NW coast of Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for additional convection. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high
over the W central Gulf near 26N92W and associated surface ridge
dominate the Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3
For the forecast, the high and related ridge will dominate the
Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to
moderate winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse
off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night
through Thu night. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern
Gulf of Mexico late Mon into Tue. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary.
Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over the central basin from 14N to 15N between 70W
and 73W. Otherwise, tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic
High and lower pressure across Colombia is creating fresh to strong
trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft over the S central Caribbean
with seas 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8
ft are found over the N central basin. Mainly moderate trades and
seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Mon morning. Fresh
to locally strong winds can be expected across this region
through the rest of the week. A tropical wave moving across the
central basin will support scattered showers across the NW
Caribbean through tonight.
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning near the Canary Islands. For information on
convection across the Atlantic Basin, refer to the Tropical Waves
and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections.
A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores
high across Bermuda to Florida. This feature support mostly light
to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft N of 20N between 39W and
the Bahamas, and also from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
present N of 20N between 23W and 39W. Strong to gale winds and
seas of 9 to 12 ft are seen N of 23N between the NW African coast
and 23W. Gentle to moderate S to WSW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft
prevail for the rest of the basin.
For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate
the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches
to the Windward Passage through Thu. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast through Tue.