Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 210521

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 05N- 
18N, moving west around 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery 
shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment.
Scattered showers are present from 10N-13N between 55W-60W. The 
wave could help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the 
southern Windward Islands and southeast Caribbean through early 
next week. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 08N-18N, 
moving west around 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb 
trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are 
noted south of 10N and west of 80W, extending to the coasts of 
Panama and Costa Rica, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. 
Upper-level divergence over the southwestern Caribbean is also 
playing a significant role in enhancing this convection.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 13N17W to 
11N20W. The ITCZ extends from 11N20W to 06N50W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate convection is noted from 04N-13N between 20W- 


A cold front is entering the northern Gulf waters, extending from
30N86W to 29N91W, then becomes stationary from that point to a
1015 mb low near 27N96W. A surface trough extends southward from 
the low to 19N94W. To the east, another surface trough is 
analyzed from 29N91W to 26N93W. A 1017 mb high is centered near
28N86W, leading to quiet weather east of 90W.

The surface trough will persist over the SW Gulf through early 
next week. The cold front will continue moving across the 
northern Gulf waters overnight. It is expected to become 
stationary as it reaches from S Florida to near 25N97W by Sun 
evening. The surface low will lift northeastward through Mon 
night. High pressure will build across the waters north of the 
front and to the west of the low.


The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from 
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. Convection associated 
with a tropical wave along 83W interacting with the monsoon 
trough is described above in the tropical waves section. Farther 
east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content
over northeastern Venezuela and the extreme southeastern 
Caribbean. Weak upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern
coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers are occurring along the 
northern coast of Venezuela extending to 13N, including Trinidad 
and the southern Windward Islands. The remainder of the Caribbean 
is experiencing relatively quiet weather.

Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to persist over 
the southeast Caribbean, southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and 
northern Venezuela into the middle of next week. Fresh to strong
winds are expected to pulse over the Windward Passage, south of 
Hispaniola, and near the coast of Colombia through the next few
days. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through Tue


A stationary front passes through 32N51W to 26N62W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 28N50W to 25N54W. Scattered moderate 
convection prevails with these features mainly north of 23N 
between 47W-55W. To the south, another surface trough is located  
from 15N40W to 12N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 
10N-14N between 39W-43W.

The aforementioned stationary front will dissipate by this 
evening west of 65W. A strong cold front will move off NE Florida 
tonight, reaching from near 31N70W to 27N75W to near West Palm 
Beach by Sun afternoon, from near 31N64W to 26N72W to Miami late 
Sun night, and from 26N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys 
by Mon evening, then becomes stationary. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected behind this front through late Mon 
before gradually subsiding by mid-week.

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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Oct-2018 05:22:12 UTC