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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 020509

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 02N27W
and to 02N38W. The ITCZ extends from 02N38W to 00N49W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N and between 23W 
and 39W.


A cold front is slowly progressing eastward across the NW Gulf of
Mexico. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture result in 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 27N. No 
deep convection is present in the rest of the basin. The pressure 
gradient between the strong ridge positioned NE of Bermuda and 
lower pressures in the western Gulf sustain moderate to fresh 
southerly winds between 85W and 93W. However, a recent 
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale- 
force winds are occurring in the strong convection. Seas in these 
waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a weak cold front extends from Galveston, TX to
just south of Brownsville, TX. It will reach from southeastern 
Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Sat evening, from the Florida 
Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Sun evening, from South Florida to
the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf Mon evening, and 
extend from central Cuba to near the northern Yucatan Peninsula 
and to the SW Gulf on Tue before becoming stationary and 
dissipating by late Tue night. High pressure will build across the
area in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds 
are expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico from Sun 
through Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected Tue 
night from 22N to 26N west of 90W. 


A strong high pressure system north of the Caribbean Sea supports
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south- 
central Caribbean Sea, as depicted by a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. The strongest 
winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong 
easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are present in the north-
central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and also in the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally strong easterly winds, 
along with seas of 4-7 ft, are noted in the eastern Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent.

No deep convection is evident in the Caribbean Sea. Patches of 
low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving 
across the area producing isolated passing showers. 

For the forecast, the gradient resulting from strong high pressure
north of the area combining with relatively lower pressure in
the southwestern Caribbean and in northern Colombia will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sat night. As
the high weakens and shifts eastward, the area of fresh to
strong trade winds will diminish some next week. A cold front is
expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean Wed and Wed
night, followed by fresh northeast winds.


A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 31N40W to
23N52W and to 21N65W. A shear line then stretches from 21N65W to 
the NW Bahamas and off NE Florida. A few showers are seen on 
satellite imagery near these boundaries. Latest satellite-derived 
wind data captured fresh to strong winds north of the cold front 
and shear line. However, moderate or weaker winds are evident 
under the ridge, north of 28N and between 60W and 70W. Seas are
8-12 ft north of the cold front and east of 55W, with the highest
seas occurring near 31N43W. In the remainder of the area north of
the cold front and shear line, moderate seas prevail. Moderate to
fresh easterly trades are observed south of the boundaries, and 
between 60W and 75W, along with seas of 5-7 ft. The exception is 
strong winds at the entrance of the Windward Passage.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad
subtropical ridging. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-9 
ft are affecting the waters north of 28N and east of 20W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 

For the forecast west to 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
weaken as it moves southeastward through early on Sat afternoon. 
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas due to a 
northwest swell in the wake of the front will gradually subside 
through Sun. Strong high pressure centered well north of the 
region will shift eastward and weaken into early next week in 
response to a cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast 
of northeastern Florida early on Mon. The front is expected to 
reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and to near the 
Florida Keys Mon night, and begin to weaken as it reaches from 
near 31N55W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by Tue 
night. Another cold front is expected to move across the western 
part of the area Wed and Wed night, followed by fresh to strong 
northwest to north winds and building seas.