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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre has developed in the eastern North 
Pacific Ocean. The gyre will gradually move northward, toward
Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend.
The gyre will continue to push abundant moisture into parts of 
Central America through the weekend, and into the next week. 
Heavy rainfall is likely in parts of Central America, especially 
from northern Costa Rica northward into southern Mexico. This will
bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and 
mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest amounts of 
rainfall, especially areas of mountainous terrain. Please read the
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather service for more 
information.

...Broad low pressure in Atlantic Ocean... 

A broad area of low pressure is centered over the central 
Atlantic Ocean near 26N55W. This disturbance is producing a large
area of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional 
development of this system is possible, and a subtropical 
depression could form tonight or on Saturday as it moves generally
northward. Development is not expected after that time due to 
unfavorable environmental conditions. Please see the latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W, from 19N southward, 
moving westward at 15 knots. Isolated showers are noted in the 
vicinity of the wave axis. The tropical wave will move across the 
western Caribbean this weekend before it gets absorbed into the 
Central American Gyre.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N14W to 06N24W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N24W to the coast of Brazil near 05N52W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N- 09N 
between the coast near Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea to 22W. 
Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the ITCZ from 
04N-08N between 25W- 40W, and scattered moderate showers from 
07N-14N between 47W- 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from southern Louisiana, 
into Matamoros, Mexico. A surface trough extends 25N92W to 18N95W
in the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted west of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

A reinforcing front will move into the northeast Gulf Sun into 
Mon, then stall and dissipate over the east central Gulf through 
late Tue. Winds and seas may increase over the southwest Gulf by 
mid week as low pressure forms farther south. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about the potential for heavy rainfall over Central America. 

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail across the south central Caribbean with
gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5
ft range. 

Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras early next 
week as a Central American Gyre settles over northern Central 
America and southern Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about the potential development of a broad low in the Atlantic 
over the next couple of days.

A 1015 mb low pressure is center is near 26N55W with a trough 
extending from 30N50W to 20N61W. There is a medium chance this 
low will develop into a subtropical depression tonight or on 
Saturday. Strong to near gale winds, and seas of 8-14 ft,  are 
noted within 300 NM N semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 300 nm E and N of the low. Isolated moderate 
convection is elsewhere within 240 nm to the east of the surface 
trough, and within 300 nm to the north of Puerto Rico, in the 
Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft 
prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. 

Weak high pressure north of the area will shift east through Sun 
ahead of a cold front moving south of 30N Sun night. The front 
will reach from Bermuda to Palm Beach Florida on Mon, then stall 
and dissipate along 25N through mid week. 

$$
AL/MTorres