000
AXNT20 KNHC 111046
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the 
western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front over the NW Gulf 
will continue to quickly move southeastward across the basin, 
exiting the region Wed evening. Strong to gale-force winds and 
rapidly building seas to 17 ft can be expected in the wake of the
front today. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually 
diminish from W to E tonight into Thu. 

Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will continue over
the NE Florida offshore waters today ahead of a rapidly
approaching cold front forecast to enter the basin by this afternoon.
Frequent gusts to gale-force out of the S and SW and building 
seas to 13 ft are expected behind the front today. Winds will 
turn to the NW behind the front and frequent gusts to gale-force 
will continue this evening before winds slowly diminish to fresh 
to strong speeds on Thu. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 09N13W 
then extends southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N19W to 04N36W to 01N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection 
is noted within 180 nm either side of the boundaries between 15W 
and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the  
Gale Warning currently in effect.

A strong cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz, Mexico this morning. Strong to gale-force northerly
winds follow the front along with very rough seas to 16 ft,
strongest conditions occurring in the SW basin. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds and slight to moderate winds are ahead of the
front in the far SE Gulf. Aside from the wind and seas, scattered
showers and tstms are ongoing ahead of the front in the NE Gulf. 

For the forecast, strong to gale force northerly winds will 
continue to follow a cold front and affect the north-central, 
northeastern and western Gulf of Mexico through this evening. The 
front will reach from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula this 
afternoon and from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel this
evening. Very rough seas to 18 ft are forecast to build over the 
SW basin during this period. These hazardous marine conditions 
will gradually diminish from W to E tonight into Thu, then high 
pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil 
weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of 
the area and the lower pressures over South America is forcing 
fresh to strong ENE to E trades across the central Caribbean 
and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the eastern basin while
gentle to moderate easterlies are occurring in the NW region. Seas
are 7 to 9 ft across the central and SW Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft 
elsewhere. Isolated showers prevail in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the 
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E 
winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean 
through Sat morning. A strong cold front will enter the NW 
Caribbean by Wed evening, followed by fresh to strong northerly 
winds and rough seas. The front will reach from central Cuba to 
the Cayman Islands by Thu morning where it will stall before 
dissipating Fri. However, strong high pressure will build in the 
wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexico and the SW N Atlantic 
waters, which will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in
the NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage through early Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the  
Gale Warning currently in effect.

Strong high pressure anchored by a 1037 mb high over the NW
Atlantic extends a broad ridge across the entire subtropical
Atlantic waters. The ridge is being disected by an elongated
surface trough that extends from 31N45W to 09N55W, which is
supporting scattered showers and tstms within 300 nm either side
of the trough axis. Aside from the convective activity, fresh to
locally strong winds and seas to 10 ft are also ongoing either 
side of the trough between 40W and 68W. Otherwise, fresh to strong
southerly winds and moderate seas are over the NE Florida offshore
waters, ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico
this morning. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are elsewhere in
the subtropics while moderate to fresh trades dominate the
tropical waters.  

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds will 
continue to affect the NE Florida offshores waters today, ahead of
an approaching cold front forecast to come off the coast of 
Jacksonville this afternoon. Frequent gust to gale-force winds and
rough seas are expected ahead of the front through late this 
afternoon and will also follow the front through the early evening
hours. The front will reach from 31N73W to the northern Bahamas 
to western Cuba near 23N80W tonight, stall E of Bermuda to the 
central Bahamas to central Cuba Thu night and dissipate Fri. 
However, strong high pressure and associated ridging will build in
the wake of the front, which will tighten the pressure gradient 
against an approaching surface trough from the east. This will 
lead to the continuation of strong to near gale-force winds across
most of the region through the weekend. 

$$
Ramos