000
AXNT20 KNHC 131054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Dec 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES:

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
ridge building across the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake of a
weakening stationary front that extends from 31N67W to central
Cuba and an approaching surface trough from the east will lead to
the expansion of fresh to strong winds over the weekend and the 
development of frequent gust to gale force winds over the northern
Bahamas offshore waters Sat through Sun. The surface trough, currently
along 55W, has strong to near gale force winds in the northern
portion of its axis along with very rough seas to 16 ft. Winds 
will start to gradually weaken across the region Sun night into 
Mon, and seas will subside below 12 ft Tue.  

The OUTLOOK section for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast 
consists of the threat of cyclonic near gale or gale in the 
marine zone IRVING. The OUTLOOK period covers the next 24 hours 
after the initial 36-hour forecast period. Please, refer to the 
website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N10W and extends 
southwestward to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N34W
to 05N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to
10N between 20W and 45W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure anchored over the SE CONUS, extends a ridge
across the basin and Florida, and continue to support fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft in the SE Gulf and the 
Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate 
seas are ongoing elsewhere.  

For the forecast, a strong high pressure and associated ridge 
will dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters, supporting fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas in the SE Gulf and the Straits of 
Florida through Sun night. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds elsewhere 
will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon morning and 
prevail across the basin through Tue night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extending from central Cuba to the 
Gulf of Honduras dissipated early this morning. However, fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft continues to affect the NW
Caribbean and the Windward Passage as strong high pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico is expanding and shifting ENE, leading to a
tighter pressure gradient. The ridge also supports fresh to strong
NE to E winds over the central basin, including Hispaniola
adjacent waters, off Colombia and in the Mona Passage. Seas across
the central Caribbean are moderate to rough. In the E Caribbean,
winds are gentle to moderate from the NE and seas are slight to
moderate. 

For the forecast, a strong ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico
and shifting to the SW N Atlantic waters will sustain fresh to 
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas in the NW Caribbean and
the Windward Passage through Sun morning. Afterward, moderate to 
fresh NE winds will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds 
by Mon afternoon and to light to gentle speeds on Tue as the broad
high pressure shift NE and then eastward to the north-central 
Atlantic waters. The high pressure will also support fresh to 
strong NE winds over the central and SW Caribbean through Sat 
morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE winds over the E 
Caribbean will gradually diminish today as a surface trough moves 
across the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N67W across the 
Bahamas to central Cuba. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough
seas continue to affect the central and southern Florida offshore
waters, and the northern and central Bahamas. Further east, over
the offshore waters to the NE of Puerto Rico, a broad surface
trough along 55W is generating scattered showers and tstms. The
trough is also supporting strong to near gale-force winds and
rough seas to 16 ft, which cover most of the central subtropical
waters. A broad area of low pressure is to the W of the Canary
Islands and is also supporting scattered showers over portions of
the eastern subtropical waters. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas to 13 ft are associated with this elongated area of low
pressure.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate 
later today. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas 
affecting the central and southern Florida offshore waters, and 
the northern and central Bahamas will prevail and expand in areal 
coverage through the weekend as strong high pressure building in 
the wake of the front tightens the pressure gradient against an 
approaching surface trough from the east. This will lead to the 
development of frequent gust to gale force winds over the northern
Bahamas offshore waters Sat through Sun. Winds will start to 
gradually weaken across the region Sun night into Mon, and seas 
will subside below 12 ft Tue. 

$$
Ramos