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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252321
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from
02N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Latest satellite imagery 
shows a cyclonic circulation just ahead of the wave axis near 
10N26W. Convection is limited. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 02N
to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is only producing limited
shower activity. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE
winds ahead of the wave axis while an altimeter pass shows seas
of 8-9 ft in association with this feature. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system over the next 
few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early 
to middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move 
westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the
Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern 
Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The chance of tropical
cyclone formation is low during the next 48 hours, but medium 
over the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for 
the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 02N to 15N. It
is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted near the northern end of the wave axis
and mainly from 11N to 14N between 49W and 53W. This tropical 
wave is expected to produce enhanced rainfall over the Windward 
Islands on Sun and Sun night.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 17N 
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave is helping to 
induce some shower activity over Honduras and the Gulf of
Honduras. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of The Gambia near
13N17W to 08N24W to 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from 09N30W to 
06N40W to 08N52W. Aside from convection associated with the 
tropical waves, clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection
are noted along the west coast of Africa from Liberia all the 
way to southern Senegal, likely associated with the next tropical
wave. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the NE Gulf and central Florida
generated numerous showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of
the Gulf region is under the influence of a 1019 mb high 
pressure located near 28N91W, that is producing light to gentle 
winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough will meander across the NE Gulf 
through Mon. A low pressure area could develop over the N Gulf 
early next week and drift westward across the north-central or 
northwestern Gulf, with any development being slow to occur. 
Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters 
through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends 
into the southwestern Caribbean Sea from northern Costa Rica to 
northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture combining with low- 
level convergence supports clusters of moderate to isolated
strong convection over the SW Caribbean, including also northern
Colombia and western Venezuela. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted across much of Cuba due to diurnal heating
and sea breeze boundaries. Similar convective activity is over
Hispaniola and western Puerto Rico. 

Recent ASCAT satellite data show moderate to locally fresh 
trades across the central Caribbean, and mainly moderate winds 
elsewhere, with the exception of gentle winds over the NW part of
the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 3-4
ft over the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the northwestern 
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail 
over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night as the 
Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 
40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong 
tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters
early Tue, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and 
Wed night and reach the central Caribbean Thu. Environmental 
conditions are conducive for development of this wave over the 
next several days as it moves generally westward. Gusty winds 
in squalls and buildings seas are likely Wed and Wed night over 
the eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Currently, three tropical waves are moving westward across the
tropical Atlantic. One of them has the potential for tropical
cyclone formation. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for
more details.

A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N72W to a weak 1015 
mb low pressure located just N of the NW Bahamas. A surface 
trough extends from the low across central Florida into the NE
Gulf of Mexico. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate NE winds 
north of the front. Mainly light and variable winds are S of the
front. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is within
about 150-180 nm ahead of the front, and is associated with an 
upper-level trough. An upper-level low is near 26N60W generated
some shower and thunderstorm activity. The remainder of the 
Atlantic forecast waters are dominated by a 1035 mb high pressure
located near 41N43W. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate trades
generally prevail north of 23N with 5-6 ft seas. Fresh trades 
are found from the ITCZ to 23N, where seas are 6-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front 
will dissipate tonight. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will 
remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong
tropical wave will approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and 
move across the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday.
Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it 
moves across the region.

$$
GR