000
AXNT20 KNHC 011707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is east of the Prime Meridian in the Gulf of
Guinea. The ITCZ extends from 04N at the Prime Meridian to the
coast of Brazil near 03N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N to 08N between 14W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, along the southern
periphery of high pressure centered over the SE United States.
Winds may pulse to locally fresh speeds along the coast of the
Yucatán Peninsula and near Tampico, Mexico. A weak surface trough
parallels the coast of the W Gulf, from 27N97W to 21N95W. Seas 
are 4-7 ft south of 26N across the basin, including within the 
Yucatán Channel, and 2-4 ft north of 26N.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a trough over the
western Gulf and high pressure over the southern U.S. will 
support fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and building 
seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week. Along with 
these conditions, unsettled weather is expected in the western 
Gulf during the early to middle part of the week. Winds will 
increase over the remainder of the Gulf Mon through Wed, then 
diminish afterward. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from near Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba across
the Cayman Islands to the eastern Gulf of Honduras. Fresh NE winds
and 4-7 ft seas are analyzed in the NW Caribbean west of the
surface trough, including within the Yucatán Channel. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin with 4-7 ft seas.
The latest scatterometer data indicates strong trades are
impacting the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N west of 80W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will increase to fresh
to strong speeds in the NW Caribbean today. These winds will then
expand in coverage over the majority of the basin going into the 
middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the 
western Atlantic. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to near Puerto Padre, Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm ahead of the front
north of 27N. Two weak surface troughs are along the central
Bahamas and off the coast of Florida. The Atlantic is dominated by
1033 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin east of 55W, with
gentle to moderate winds west of 55W. Seas are 4-7 ft across open
waters. Seas may locally peak to 8 ft in the highest winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward 
Passage by tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will
follow the front. A reinforcing cold front will push southward 
into the NW part of the area late tonight, followed by fresh 
northwest to north winds. It will then merge with the stationary 
front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from 
near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle part of the 
upcoming week before stalling and weakening from near 28N55W to 
24N63W and to near NW Haiti Thu and Thu night. Another cold front 
may approach the waters east of NE Florida Thu night preceded by 
fresh to strong winds. 

$$
Mahoney