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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211041

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.


A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre 
(CAG), has developed across Central America and the adjacent 
southwest Caribbean today. The monsoon trough has begun to shift 
northward across the tropical northeast Pacific, increasing SW 
winds and advecting tropical moisture over Central America.
Scattered moderate convection currently ongoing in the majority 
of Honduras and Nicaragua has caused localized flooding today. 
Heavy to extreme rainfall is possible this weekend over portions 
of Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and 
Panama. There is potential for flash flooding and mudslides, 
especially across mountainous terrain. This event is expected to 
last through early next week. Please refer to products issued by 
your local weather service for more information.


A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 53W, from 03N 
to 18N moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N-09N between 50W-55W.


The monsoon trough extends from the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 
08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 05N50W. Scattered weak 
to moderate convection from 03N to 10N between the coast of 
Africa and 25W. 


The gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over 
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the 
majority of the basin, with strong winds occurring in the south
central basin and along the SE Texas coast. Seas are 3-5 ft in the
eastern Gulf and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Divergent upper-level flow is
supporting widespread thunderstorms across Florida and the
surrounding coastal areas. Smoke from agricultural fires over
Mexico continues to spread northward and is producing hazy skies
across the western and central basin with 3-5 mi visibility.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds along with 
occasionally rough seas will prevail from the south-central Gulf 
to the northwest Gulf into Sun between high pressure over the 
western Atlantic and broad low pressure over southern Mexico and 
northern Central America. Winds and seas will diminish Sun into 
Mon as the low pressure weakens, except for pulses off fresh to 
strong winds off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly 
at night. Looking ahead, a ridge will build from the western 
Atlantic across the northern Gulf through mid week, support fresh 
SE return flow over the western Gulf. Currently, hazy conditions 
persist over some areas of the western Gulf due to agricultural 
fires in southern Mexico. 


Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event associated with a Central American
Gyre (CAG).

The Bermuda High is interacting with lower pressure associated 
with the Central American Gyre, and is forcing fresh to strong E 
to SE trades over the central and W Caribbean with moderate to 
fresh trades over the E Caribbean. Seas are 7-10 ft over the 
central Caribbean, 6-9 ft over the W Caribbean, and 4-7 ft over 
the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, the broad low pressure over Central America 
will slowly move northwest through Sun as high pressure builds 
over the western Atlantic. This pattern will support fresh to 
strong E to SE winds and rough seas over the central and northwest
Caribbean through Sat. Winds and seas will start to diminish 
across the basin early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.


In the western Atlantic, a strong ridge extends east to west along
30N west of 35W. This feature is maintaining light to gentle SE 
winds, increasing to moderate to fresh southwest of the Bahamas 
and in the Windward Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 55W and north
of 20N. Isolated showers extend about 300 nm east of Florida 
where widespread moderate convection dominates the coastal waters.
In the central Atlantic, light to gentle winds increase to 
moderate south of 20N with 4-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, 
gentle to moderate winds prevail with localized fresh NE winds 
occurring in the gaps between the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 30N 
will strengthen some through the weekend, then weaken next week. 
The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to 
moderate winds across the region through the period, except for 
pulsing of moderate to fresh E winds north of Hispaniola through 
late Sun. Moderate NE swell may impact the waters east of 60W Sun 
through Tue.