000
AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W, to the Equator along
29W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 29W, to
02S35W, and 01S42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 05N southward between 13W and 26W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near
23N, continuing inland in Mexico to 28N104W. A surface trough
is about 100 nm to the southeast of the cold front between
83W and 86W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the north of the line 27N80W 25N90W, to the
coast of Mexico near 20N. VFR conditions are in much of the
coastal plains and in the coastal waters of the U.S.A. Gulf
coast. The exception is LIFR conditions that are in the
Florida Big Bend.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from the cold front northward
from 90W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are
within 180 nm to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico from 90W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds
are in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the Yucatan Channel. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere from 90W
eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet,
mostly from the middle Texas Gulf coast southward. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere to the north
of the cold front from 90W westward. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet from the cold front southward from
90W westward. 

A cold front extending from The Florida Big Bend to near
Tampico in Mexico will move SE and extend from near Tampa
Bay to the western Bay of Campeche Wed, then weaken and
dissipate over the far SE waters Thu. Fresh to strong NE
to E winds are expected in the northwestern Gulf behind
the front through early Wed. High pressure will build
over the SE United States by the end of the week, and
will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the
basin, with fresh to locally strong winds off the
Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly for the
start of the weekend. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong NE winds, and sea heights that have been 
ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet, are within 240 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Fresh NE winds are
elsewhere within 400 nm of the coast of Colombia
and Panama. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds
are in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea.
The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 
8 feet elsewhere from the Greater Antilles
southward. Moderate or slower wind speeds have
been within 240 nm of the coast of Cuba, and in
the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SE winds
have been within 220 nm of the coast of Honduras.
The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to
6 feet in the eastern one-third of the area,
and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The
sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to
4 feet elsewhere from Jamaica westward and 
northwestward.

The total amount of rainfall for the last three days
for Guadeloupe has been close to one inch.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the
area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh
to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean
through the week. Winds N of Colombia will pulse to
gale-force each night Thu night into Sun night. Fresh
to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of
Honduras into Wed morning. Winds will pulse to fresh
to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage
Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will
build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic
this weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge passes through 31N21W, to 26N37W, to
a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 27N47W,
to a second 1020 mb high pressure center that is near
26N62W, to the Straits of Florida. A cold front is 
along 32N from Bermuda westward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from the 31N50W-to-the-Straits
of Florida line northwestward. 

The sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet to 12
feet from 20N northward between 20W and 34W. The sea
heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 11 feet
elsewhere from 13N northward between 30W and 50W.
The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet
elsewhere from 58W eastward.

The sea heights were ranging from 4 to 7 feet from
20N northward from 20W eastward. The sea heights were
ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet from 20N southward from
20W eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 
2 feet to 4 feet within a 150 nm radius of the second
1020 mb high pressure center that is near 26N62W. The
sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere from 58W westward. 

A cold front will move off the SE United States coast 
this evening, then slowly track southeastward through
Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N. Fresh to 
strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in
the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will
tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to
strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas starting
Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft
east of the Bahamas by the end of the week.

$$
mt/al