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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 151803

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W, to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02N17W,
crossing the Equator along 19W, to 02S22W 01S30W, crossing the
Equator along 34W, to 01N40W, crossing the Equator along 43W, to
01S45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong is from 07N southward.


A surface ridge passes through Lake Okeechobee in South Florida,
into the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico, toward the upper Texas
Gulf coast. 

Fresh easterly winds have been within 90 nm of the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula during the last 12 hours or so. Moderate
or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. Moderate seas are in the offshore waters of Texas from 26N
to 28N; in the offshore waters of Mexico from 19N to 22N in the SW
corner of the Gulf; and from the west central Gulf to the coastal
waters of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong winds will pulse 
off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the next several 
evenings. Winds will become fresh to strong over the western Gulf 
on tonight into Tue. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas will 
prevail through most of the week. 


A surface trough is from the coast of Venezuela to 21N, and
curving through 66W/68W. The surface trough is on the eastern side
of an upper level Atlantic Ocean trough. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is from 18N to
20N between 64W and SW Haiti. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 18N to 23N between 58W and 64W, from
200 nm to 480 nm to the northeast of the surface trough.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 15N southward between
72W and 78W. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 17N
southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate and fresh SE winds are to
the east of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
elsewhere between the surface trough and 70W. Moderate and fresh
NE to E winds are from 80W westward. Rough seas are from 60 nm to
240 nm of the coasts between 72W in Colombia and 81W in Panama.
Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the open waters of the
Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in the coastal waters of the area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 15/1200 UTC, are: 0.28 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.05 in 
Guadeloupe; and 0.03 in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Near-gale NE winds and seas to 11 ft off the coast of Colombia 
will dissipate today. Fresh to strong E winds will continue in 
this region through the next few days. Fresh to occasionally 
strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage, S of the 
Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for the next few days. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can 
be expected across much of the basin through the middle of the 


A stationary front passes through 31N58W, to 26N65W, to 23N70W,
and to Cuba near 21N76W. Rough seas are from 29N northward from 
70W westward. Strong NW winds are from 30N northward from 70W 
westward. Moderate to fresh NW winds are from the cold front 
northward. Mostly gentle to some moderate winds are from the cold 
front southward from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 24N to 27N between 67W and 
72W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 300 nm to the northwest
of the stationary front.

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 34N31W. A dissipating cold
front is along 32N21W 30N21W 23N24W. A surface trough curves 
through 31N26W 27N28W 24N35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 20N northward between 20W and 40W.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 53W/54W from 14N
to 23N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are from 14N to 25N between 50W and 60W.

Moderate to rough seas are from 05N northward between 20W and 50W.
Most of the rough seas are from 17N northward. Moderate to rough
seas also are from: South America to 27N between 50W and 57W; and 
from 18N to 24N between 56W and 62W. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front extends from 31N58W to NE Cuba will gradually 
dissipate today. Large N-NE swell across the waters impacting 
Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will linger through 
the middle of the week. High pressure will continue to build over 
waters N of 20N, bringing more tranquil marine conditions.