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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 272240

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 14N southward,
and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen mostly ahead of the wave, south of 05.5N 
between 21W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 11N southward 
and moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this feature on the latest analysis. 

A far western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from 17N
southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and moving 
westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is seen inland from 12N to 15N between 83W and 87W, and in a small
cluster across the far SW Caribbean south of 11N 


A monsoon trough exits western Africa into the Atlantic near
12N16W to 05N20W. An ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 00N36W to 00N50W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N 
between 07W and 16W. Numerous strong convection has reached the
coast of Africa from 10N to 14N and extends out to 60 nm offshore
from Guinea to Gambia. 


A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to 26N90W. 
Supported by divergent winds aloft, scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are present east through southeast of the trough over
the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida. A surface ridge 
extends from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to 
fresh SW to W winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the northeast 
Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the 
rest of Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sustain gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow over the area through the weekend. 
Fresh southerly winds will develop across the northwestern waters
by early next week as pressure gradient increases in the area. 


Convergent trades are coupling with divergent upper-level winds to
produce Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
across the basin E of 68W, including the Windward Islands. Moderate
to fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted across
the central and south central basin. Gentle to moderate trades 
and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will 
support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean 
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off
Colombia and Venezuela each night through early next week.


A weakening cold front extends from 31N40W to 30N45W. Widely 
scattered showers are evident north of 24N between 50W and 72W. 
Another surface trough reaches from southwest of the Azores across
31N35W to 25N45W. Widely scattered showers are occurring north of
25N between 31W and 45W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The subtropical ridge dominates much of the tropical Atlantic, 
supporting light to gentle winds with locally moderate winds and 
2 to 5 ft seas. The exception is 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell
north of 27N between 47W and 67W, and moderate to fresh southerly
winds off the central and northern Florida coast.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward through tonight as a cold front 
moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, fresh winds
are expected off the NE Florida coast through Sat morning. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the region 
through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh 
over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the weekend and 
into early next week.