AXNT20 KNHC 222119
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending 24N-25N and lower pressure over Colombia
will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central
Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force at night near the
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak
around 12-13 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of
11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on the Gale Warning.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 04N20W to 01N38W. The ITCZ extends from
01N38W to the coast of Brazil near 0N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 06N to 08N between 11W and 17W, and
from 00N to 06N between 18W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 05N between 25W and 48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico and maintains fairly
tranquil weather conditions as it suppresses the development of
deep convection. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of
5-8 ft are prevalent west of 91W. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds
and 3-6 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin, except 1-3 ft in
the NE Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure over the SE United States will
shift E into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing for primarily
moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in
the western Gulf tonight through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will
also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few
days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters
early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night.
Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to locally strong easterly
winds are affecting the waters of the north-central Caribbean,
along with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are
noted in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the
eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. A few showers
are noted from near the Cayman Islands to Jamaica to offshore
northern Honduras, as well as south-southeast of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Deep convection is absent in the remainder of the
For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure
ridge extending 24N-25N and lower pressure over Colombia will
continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean
Sea, with winds pulsing to or near gale force at night near the
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will
develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning
this evening. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of
Honduras late Fri and persist through the weekend. Large trade
wind swell over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will subside
tonight through Thu.
A cold front extends from 31N56W to 25N66W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to NE Cuba near 21N77W. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorm are noted ahead of the frontal boundary,
mainly within 120 nm. Fresh to strong NE winds are found behind
the frontal boundary N of 27N and E of 67W, with moderate to fresh
NE-E winds elsewhere W of the front. Seas of 8-12 ft are evident
behind the cold front to 76W. The rest of the SW Atlantic is
dominated by a 1032 mb high pressure well north of the region,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions, gentle to moderate
E-SE winds and 5-8 ft seas.
A 1024 mb high pressure in the central Atlantic near 29N41W is
the dominant features patrolling the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft
prevail south of 22N and west of 30W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and a low pressure system off Western Sahara
support fresh to locally strong NE winds north of 24N and E of
24W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will meander
and gradually dissipate through Thu night. Fresh to strong NNE to
NE winds and high seas will continue behind this front north of
26N. High pressure will build in along 29N N of the old boundary
Fri and persist through the weekend.