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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 222325

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.


Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough
currently digging southward over the western Caribbean will lift 
slowly northeastward across central Caribbean Thu through Fri. 
This feature is expected to combine with abundant tropical 
moisture to support widespread deep convection across eastern 
Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri. The latest
model guidance suggests the highest rainfall accumulations to be 
across southern Hispaniola tonight and Thu. Residents in all the 
above locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and 
potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather 
office for more specific information.

The first tropical wave of the upcoming hurricane season is
analyzed from 12N southward along 40W. According to satellite 
Hovmoller data, this wave is moving at 10-15 kt. A scatterometer 
pass and satellite derived wind data at 700 mb clearly show the 
wind shift associated with this wave, which is supporting 
scattered moderate convection from 07N to 11N between 37W and 


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near 09N13W then curves southwestward to 05N19W to 05N26W. The 
ITCZ continues westward from 05N26W across 04N38W, then resumes 
west of a tropical wave near 05N41W to the coast of French Guiana
near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 
07N between 16W and 35W.


Fair and hazy skies prevail across the entire Gulf, as smoke from
agricultural fires across Mexico and Central America continues to
disperse across the basin. This is limiting visibility to 4 and 6
nm across large portions of the western and central Gulf. A weak 
surface ridge extends from the SE U.S. SW into the E Gulf while 
lower pressures dominates the western half of the basin. This 
pressure pattern is producing light to gentle E to SE winds 
across the basin E of 90W, and moderate to locally fresh SE winds 
across the waters W of 90W. Seas are moderate to 5 ft to the W of
90W and slight elsewhere. 

For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in 
Mexico will continue across all but NE portions of the Gulf 
through tonight. High pressure will remain NE of the basin through
the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E 
of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Thu night through Mon. 


Please read the Special Features section about the Significant 
Rainfall Event. 

A sharp mid to upper-level trough extends from the western
Atlantic along 74W S-SW across Cuba to Costa Rica and Panama. 
This feature aloft support a surface trough that extends from
13N74W across the Windward Passage to the southern Bahamas. 
Diffluent flow associated with the trough aloft and abundant 
moisture across the central Caribbean is generating widespread
numerous showers and scattered tstms over Panama and Costa Rica
adjacent waters, the central basin, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and E
Cuba, including the Windward and Mona Passages.

Fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas at 8 to 9 ft are present 
at the north-central basin N of 15N with gusty winds in the areas 
of strong tstsms per recent scatterometer and GLM data. Moderate 
to fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the eastern 
basin. Gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail 
in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted along the SW
basin S of 13N between 71W and 82W. Otherwise, smoke due to 
agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of
Honduras, and spreads NW to the Yucatan coast causing reduced 
visibilities down to 3 to 5 nm.

For the forecast, the strong deep level trough will continue 
across the Caribbean through tonight, then lift out to the NE Thu 
through Sat. This feature will support active weather across the 
central portions of the basin, which will gradually shift NE and 
into the Atlc through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the 
central Caribbean will shift northeastward tonight through Thu 
while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. A broad and weak trough 
will prevail across the north-central Caribbean Thu night through 
Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the E portions and 
moderate to fresh winds across NW portions of the basin. Smoke due
to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the 
Gulf of Honduras, and spreads NW to the Yucatan coast. 


Please see the Tropical Waves Section for information on the first
tropical wave of the upcoming hurricane season.

A sharp mid to upper-level trough is supporting a surface trough
that extends from 30N71W southward across the northwest Bahamas 
across Cuba into the W Caribbean. A second surface trough extends
from 24N72W to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms prevail across the western Atlantic between 62W and

A weak pressure gradient across the SW N Atlantic waters, continue
to support light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate
seas N of 24N and W of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds 
are ongoing S of 24N between 36W and 65W. The remainder central 
and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
surface ridge that is supporting light to gentle variable winds N
of 24N, except for moderate to fresh NE winds from the W coast of
Africa to 30W. In the tropics, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are W
and E of the Cape Verde Islands along with seas to 9 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh trades are across the remainder tropics E of the
Lesser Antilles along with moderate seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will weaken through
tonight. Another trough across the Windward Passage and SE 
Bahamas will drift eastward through Thu night. Weak low pressure 
is expected to develop along the trough just N of Hispaniola Thu 
night and shift N-NE through Sat night, accompanied by moderate to
fresh winds and active weather.