AXNT20 KNHC 071039
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave extends along 30W-31W from 01N-18N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Saharan air and an associated low level wind surge has
moved well ahead of this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N
across the Atlantic to 55W. Due to this dry air, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the
monsoon trough between 21W and 36W.
A tropical wave extends from 20N57W to 05N61W, moving W at around
15 kt. An associated low level cyclonic circulation can be seen
in satellite imagery near 14N58.5W moving WNW with the wave, while
Saharan air is general north through west of this feature and
extends into the Caribbean westward to 66W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring mainly ahead of the wave
axis, from 09N to 15N between 58W and 65W. This weather will
continue to shift W and NW across the Lesser Antilles and into the
E and NE Caribbean during the next 24 hours, producing squalls
A tropical wave is analyzed along 72W from 06N-22N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
south of 13N and mainly over land across western Venezuela and
Colombia between 70W and 75W.
The monsoon trough extends from 14N16W to 06N40W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N40W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 90 nm N and 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 38W- 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge prevails across the basin, extending from the
western Atlantic weakly across extreme south Florida to the
northwest Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow
dominates the basin, with SE to S return flow west of 90W and SW
onshore flow across NE portions. Seas are generally 3-5 ft around
the periphery of the ridge and 3 ft or less in the SE Gulf.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the
northern Gulf north of 27.5N from SE Texas to the Florida
peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the SW Gulf
within 150 nm of the coast moving NW.
The ridge will prevail the entire forecast period with the center
of high pressure fluctuating between the NW and NE basin. This
will allow for the continuation of moderate to fresh southerly
winds across W portions of the basin and moderate westerly winds
across NE portions into the weekend.
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the central Caribbean.
A middle to upper level trough extends from the southern Bahamas
to Panama, while a large mid- upper level anticyclone is noted E
of this trough across the majority of the basin. Latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh across the central
and eastern Caribbean, except fresh to strong near the N coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail over the western Caribbean, except locally fresh to strong
near the Gulf of Honduras.
A weak ridge along 29N across the W Atlc will persist through
tonight before reorganizing and strengthening across the region
late Wed through Sat. Fresh to strong tradewinds will persist in
the south-central Caribbean, increasing to near gale force Thu
and Fri nights. Expect increasing winds, seas and active weather
over the Tropical N Atlantic waters today associated with a
tropical wave along 58W, spreading across the E Caribbean through
Wed. Squalls and thunderstorms are expected across the NE
Caribbean later today and tonight as thunderstorms activity moves
into the Saharan air. Strong winds will pulse at night in the
Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section for information on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.
High pressure extends from a 1027 mb center near 38N30W
southwestward to 29N40W then westward to 70W. Overnight
scatterometer data depicted fresh tradewinds south of 20N, with
seas of 7-9 ft prevailing, and gentle to moderate SE to S winds
across the western half of the basin.
The weak ridge along 29N will persist through tonight before
reorganizing and strengthening across the region late Wed through
Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will affect most of the
area N of 23N Wed through Sat night. Low pressure across the SE
U.S. will move NE and approach the coast of the Carolinas Wed
through Thu, dragging a trough across the northern Florida
offshore waters. Fresh to locally strong tradewinds and hazy
conditions will dominate most of the open Atlantic waters through
Thu as another large area of Saharan air accompanies another
tropical wave moving across the basin.