000
AXNT20 KNHC 050004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 22.6N 65.9W at 04/2100 
UTC or 255 nm N of St. Thomas, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring from 15N to 27N between 62W and 67W. 
Associated heavy rainfall could still produce isolated flash 
flooding across portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
into this evening, with rains diminishing late tonight into Thu. 
Seas in excess of 12 ft are noted with 150 nm to the east of the 
center and within 30 nm to the west of center, with peak seas to 
18 ft. Philippe is expected to pick up speed moving northward 
tonight, maintaining tropical storm strength. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday morning, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the island. Please 
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31/32W from 
03N to 14N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 27W
and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of  
17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is active from 07N to 12.5N between 50W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 16N19W to 10N27W to 08N36W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 08N47W to 10N54W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 10N between 37W and
47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and tstorms are over the west-central Gulf
offshore the lower Texas coast, with mainly dry conditions
elsewhere. Fresh E winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across most of
the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters 
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over just about the 
entire basin. As the gradient slackens through Thu, this will 
allow for these winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. 
Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A 
cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Fri into Sat 
followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection related to Tropical Storm
Philippe is over the NE Caribbean north of 15N between 62W and
67W. However, winds have diminished to moderate and seas have
subsided to 5 ft or less. Please refer to the Special Features 
section for additional details on Tropical Storm Philippe.

A broad mid to upper level trough reaches from off the Carolina
coast southward through central Cuba to off the coast of
Nicaragua. Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southeast Cuba and near 
Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms prevail across the remainder of
the basin east of 81W, with somewhat drier conditions in the NW
basin. East of 68W, winds are moderate SE with seas 3-5 ft. In the
Yucatan Channel, winds are moderate to fresh from the ENE with 
seas 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are mainly light to gentle with 
seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, light to gentle trade winds will be over the 
basin through the next few days, except for moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds in the eastern Caribbean tonight into Thu. A
tropical wave currently moving across the waters E of the Lesser 
Antilles will reach the eastern Caribbean on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on 
Tropical Storm Philippe.

An upper-level trough extending from the Carolinas southward to
the western Caribbean is inducing scattered thunderstorms north of
26.5N between 73W and 79W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted from 27N to 31N between 61W and 68W. Fresh E winds and 6-8
ft seas are over the western Atlantic north and northeast of the
Bahamas, outside of Philippe. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered
near 26N40.5W, with a surface ridge extending from 30N30W to the 
high pres to 26N55W. To the north of this ridge, scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of a line extending from
31N37W to 28.5N45W to 28N54W. Fresh W winds and 6-8 ft seas are 
also found to the north of that surface ridge. Some showers and 
tstorms are also seen in the NE Atlantic from 21N to 29N between 
16W and 26W in association with a surface trough. In the tropical 
latitudes, fresh trades and 6-7 ft seas prevail from 10N to 22N 
between 40W and 61W.

For the forecast, Philippe will continue northward over the next
two to three days, and is forecast to be well north of the area 
by late Sat as it transitions to an extratropical system. The 
pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support fresh 
northeast winds north of the Bahamas through tonight, then 
diminish afterward. 

$$
Hagen