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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Rainshowers are 
possible from 10N to 20N between 30W and 40W. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong monsoon trough-related 
rainshowers are 06N to 08N between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N 
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The wave is moving
across the waters that are between Haiti and Cuba and Jamaica.
Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating/weakening
precipitation are in the waters that are between Cuba, Haiti, and
Jamaica. Numerous strong rainshowers were in the same waters at
19/0600 UTC. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers 
cover the southeastern two-thirds of the Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of 
Senegal and The Gambia near 12N17W, to 12N28W, 08N43W, and 08N52W.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong 
rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 10N20W to 08N30W 07N36W 07N41W and 07N47W. Other isolated 
moderate rainshowers are possible to the south of 22N17W 17N24W 
12N37W 12N60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level inverted trough extends from the NE corner of the 
Gulf of Mexico to the central sections of the Gulf. Broken to 
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally 
strong rainshowers are from 21N northward from 96W eastward.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers have developed
along the coast of Mexico from 18N to 20N between 95W and 97W.

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the east 
coast of Florida near 28N, to the central Gulf of Mexico, into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge, that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to 
the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, will change little through
the week. The surface pressure gradient, between weak low 
pressure in southern Alabama and the ridge, will allow for fresh 
southwest winds in the NE Gulf of Mexico to continue through early
this morning, before diminishing to moderate speeds. Fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds will pulse in the waters adjacent 
to the western Yucatan Peninsula through early this morning and 
again tonight. The northern part of a tropical wave will move from
the western Caribbean Sea into the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico on Wednesday. It will weaken to a trough and track 
northwestward across the western Gulf of Mexico, from Wednesday 
night through Thursday night, before reaching the Texas coast on 
Friday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with this 
feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough from 250 mb to 700 mb passes across Cuba to Honduras and
Nicaragua. A surface trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, along 85W/86W from Honduras northward. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Panama, Costa 
Rica, and Nicaragua, from 10N80W to 12N82W. Widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the open waters
from 10N to 20N between Jamaica and 86W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W and 80W in 
Panama, and then continuing northwestward from Panama beyond NW 
Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, in clusters,
from 06N to 10N between 76W and 83W.

The combination of a 74W/75W tropical wave, and high pressure 
to the north of the area, will support a pressure gradient that 
will allow for fresh to strong east winds in the south central 
Caribbean Sea through early Wednesday. Fresh to strong east winds
are expected again in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then diminish
to moderate to fresh speeds through the remainder of the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 74W/75W from 23N in the Bahamas to 29N.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 90 nm to the ENE of the trough, and within 300 nm to the
southwest of the trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 66W westward.

Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea to 25N between 60W and 66W,
in an area of broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind 
flow.

A surface ridge is along 33N31W, to a 1021 mb high pressure 
center that is near 32N54W, to 32N70W, beyond 28N along the 
Florida east coast.

The current Atlantic Ocean 74W/75W surface trough will track 
westward, across the rest of the Bahamas through this evening, and 
move inland into central and southern Florida on Tuesday. 
Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough.
The pressure gradient S of the ridge in the western Atlantic 
Ocean generally will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of
22N, and moderate to fresh E winds S of 22N through the end of the
week. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse at night, between the
Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola, tonight and again on Tuesday
night.

$$
MT