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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211141
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico,
Caribbean and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details 
on the special features mentioned below.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

As of 21/0900 UTC, a 1015 mb low is centered S of Tampa Florida
near 27.5N82W. A cold front extends SW from the low to the SW Gulf
of Mexico near 21N94W to S of Veracruz Mexico near 18.5N95W. 45 kt
northerly gale force winds are from 19N-24N between 95W-97W
including within 60 nm of Veracruz Mexico. Seas are 12-16 ft.  
The gale is forecast to end 22/0600 UTC Fri night. 

...WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

As of 21/0900 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W
to West End Grand Bahama near 27N79W to Stuart Florida near
27N80W, moving SE. Gale force winds are on both sides of the 
front north of 28N between 71W-81W with seas 10-13 ft, building 
to 20 ft. Gale force winds will end by 22/0600 UTC Friday night. 

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale force winds are off the coast of N Colombia from 10N-12N 
between 74W-77W. Seas are 10-13 ft. Winds will diminish below 
gale force on 21/1500 UTC Friday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra 
Leone near 07N11W to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 240 nm either side of the axis. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21/0900 UTC, As of 21/0900 UTC, a 1015 mb low is centered
S of Tampa Florida near 27.5N82W. A cold front extends SW from 
the low to the SW Gulf of Mexico near 21N94W to S of Veracruz 
Mexico near 18.5N95W. A gale is over the SW Gulf of Mexico. See
above. Numerous 25-30 kt reports are N of the front. Scattered 
showers are within 60 nm of the front. In the upper levels zonal 
flow is noted with strong subsidence. 

The low near Tampa Florida will dissipate later this morning. The
cold front will move SE of the Gulf by this evening. Behind the 
front N gales in the NW Gulf will weaken to strong winds later 
this morning, and N gales offshore Tampico will end this 
afternoon. Gale conditions are developing offshore Veracruz and 
the W Bay of Campeche, and these will persist into tonight. Strong
winds and seas of 8 to 12 feet will prevail through Sat, before 
high pressure builds in and conditions improve into early next 
week. Another cold front will move across the western Gulf Mon 
night through Tue night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds along the coast of N Colombia will end on 
21/1500 UTC. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the 
Caribbean Sea with weakest winds over the Yucatan Channel. 
Clusters of scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds, S 
of 20N. Upper level ridging with strong subsidence is suppressing 
all deep convection. 

A cold front will bring strong N winds and higher seas to the NW 
Caribbean later today, then spread toward the central Caribbean 
this weekend, before stalling and dissipating early next week. 
High pressure will build back in in the wake of this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21/0900 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W
to West End Grand Bahama near 27N79W to Stuart Florida near
27N80W, moving SE. Gale force winds are N of 28N. See above. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. A 1032
mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N25W. A 1018 mb low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 32N15W. A cold front extends S 
to the Canary Islands to 27N20W to 29N30W. Scattered showers 
are over the Canary Islands. 

The W Atlantic cold front will stretch from SE of Bermuda across
the central Bahamas and into central Cuba by this evening. The 
front will then reach Hispaniola and the SE parts of the area by 
late Sat, and may reach Puerto Rico for the start of next week. N 
of 29N, SW of Bermuda, gale force SW winds are likely ahead of the
front into this afternoon. Behind the front, N gales and seas of 
up to 20 feet are anticipated N of 28N through tonight. The swell 
associated with these gales will spread SE through the weekend 
while gradually decaying. Seas will likely fall below 8 ft Mon.

$$
Formosa