440 
AXNT20 KNHC 230506
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N74W 
to central Florida near 27N80W. Gale-force northerly winds N of 
29N and W of the front to 77W will diminish late tonight. Large 
northerly swell up to 14 ft W of the front will gradually decay 
Tue and Tue night. 

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: An occluded front is just N of 
our area, its associated 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 
31N33.5W. The cold front associated with this occluded front 
enters our water at 31N28W and extends SW to 18N39.5W. Recent 
scatterometer data depicted NW to N near gale-force to gale 
force winds over the southwestern and western quadrant of the 
low. Seas will build to 14 in a mixed swell. Winds will decrease 
below gale Tue morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
and extends southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W
to 01S30W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04S to 03N between 24W and 46W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N88W, continuing 
as a stationary front to Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh to 
NE winds prevail behind the front, reaching strong speeds over 
the far SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are found E of the 
front and over the northern Gulf. Along the front, seas are in 
the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere seas of 3-5 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 
23N88W, continuing as a stationary front to Veracruz, Mexico. 
Fresh to strong NW winds are offshore Veracruz and W of the 
Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
elsewhere behind the front. Seas of 4 to 7 ft, up to 8 ft near 
Veracruz, will gradually subside through Tue. The majority of 
the front will push SE of the basin later tonight with the 
western portion dissipating. High pressure will dominate in the 
wake of the front through mid-week. Winds will increase to fresh 
to strong across most of the basin by the end of the week into 
the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens, which will also 
build seas reaching 7 to 11 ft basinwide Sat night. Fresh to 
strong winds will pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula in the 
evenings. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the area supporting
moderate to locally fresh winds over the central and eastern 
Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western 
Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and 
eastern Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean. A 
surface trough enters the basin from western Puerto Rico to 
15N67.5W. Rainfall totals through this afternoon over Puerto 
Rico in association to this trough were between 2 to 4 inches. 

For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the area will 
sustain moderate to locally fresh trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the N coast of Colombia 
and near the Gulf of Venezuela midweek. Mainly gentle to 
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to 
fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, S of 
Hispaniola, and offshore central Honduras at times, fresh to 
strong Wed night and again Sat night. A decaying cold front may 
reach into the Caribbean N of 19N later tonight, possibly 
bringing a brief period of active weather. Slight to moderate 
seas will prevail across the basin, building to 7 to 10 ft N of 
18N Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special features section for information on gale 
conditions across the north-west and north-central waters.

A cold front extends from 31N72W to the Florida Keys near 
25N80W. A line of showers and thunderstorms is observed within 
75 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. N gale force winds are 
found N of 29N and W of the front to 77W, with seas of 6-9 ft. 
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are found ahead of the front. A 
weak ridge extends SW from 1026 mb high pressure centered near 
34N47W to the southern Bahamas. Light to gentle winds, and seas 
of 3-4 ft, are along the ridge axis. A surface trough is 
depicted south of 22N64W to south of Puerto Rico. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are depicted along the trough N of 
Puerto Rico. Farther east, a cold front extends from a complex 
low pressure area near 31N33.5W, SW to near 18N39.5W. Northerly 
gale force winds are found N of 30N between 34.5W and 35.5W. 
Elsewhere, winds are generally in the gentle to moderate range 
with seas in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front over the western 
Atlantic will reach from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas Tue evening 
while weakening, then will become a dissipating stationary front 
from 31N59W to 21N76W Wed evening, then becoming a remnant 
trough there by Thu evening. The trough will linger through the 
end of the week, getting reinforced by a cold front which may 
dive S of 31N Fri night, reaching from 31N54W to near N Haiti by 
Sat evening. Increasing winds and a large area of building seas 
will also rapidly push S-SW of 31N across the waters W of the 
boundary. Winds may be near gale-force N of 27N and E of 65W as 
a parent low forms near 31N this Weekend. The aforementioned 
surface trough near Puerto Rico triggered showers and 
thunderstorms this afternoon with total rainfall accumulation 
between 2 to 4 inches. The wet pattern over Puerto Rico will 
persist through the week, maintaining elevated potential for 
flooding, excessive runoff, and landslides. Please refer to the 
National Weather Service San Juan for more details about 
possible flood advisories and warnings in the upcoming days. 

$$
KRV