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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 162352

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2320 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows near
gale force winds near the coast of Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N
between 74W-77W. Sea heights will range from 8 to 13 ft. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 06N10W to 
03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 01S26W to the coast of 
Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07S- 
03N between 12W-32W.


At 16/2100 UTC, a 1015 mb low was located off the SE Louisiana 
coast near 30N89W. A stationary front extends east of the low to 
the west coast of Florida near 30N83W. A cold front extends 
southwest of the low to 27N96W with a trough extending from that 
point to the coast of Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are seen along the stationary front in the 
NE Gulf, N of 28N and E of 88W. Broken clouds and isolated showers
are seen from 23N-30N between 84W-97W. A trough is in the western
Bay of Campeche from 24N97W top 19N95W. The latest scatterometer 
data and surface observations depict gentle winds across most of 
the basin, with moderate winds in the NE Gulf. Seas range from 2
to 5 ft.

A cold front over NW Gulf will stall over the northern waters 
tonight then lift northward on Mon. The next cold front is 
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue night, then move slowly across 
the Gulf region Wed through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push 
the cold front across the Gulf waters late Thu into Fri. Gale 
force conditions are possible west of the front offshore of 
Tampico, Mexico late Thu night, and offshore of Veracruz, Mexico 
on Fri. 


Mid- to upper-level cyclonic flow over the far eastern Caribbean
Sea continues to weaken. Scattered showers linger across the 
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, as well as the waters to the 
south and southeast of Puerto Rico. Comparatively drier air is 
seen over the central and western portions of the basin. The 
latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows strong trades south of 
16N between 71W-78W, with near gale- force winds near the coast of
Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N between 74W-77W. Gentle to moderate
trades are noted across the NW and eastern Caribbean. Seas near
Colombia are up to 9 ft with 3-5 ft elsewhere. 

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong 
trade winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Fri 
night. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia 
each night through Thu night. N to NE swell will move across the 
Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu before stating to
subside Fri.


A 1018 mb low is located near 31N61W with a stationary front 
extending southwest from it to 26N73W. A shear line extends 
westward from that point to near the Florida Keys near 25N80W. 
Showers are seen along the front. Two troughs are analyzed in the 
west-central Atlantic: one from 28N55W to 21N62W, and the other 
from 26N46W to 22N49W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are 
associated with both of these features. High pressure dominates 
the rest of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are seen on the 
north side of the stationary front/shear line with seas up to 8 

A cold front will briefly reach the NW waters tonight into Mon, 
the move N of the area by Mon night. The next cold front will move
off the SE U.S. coast on Wed and stall over the northern waters 
on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push the front southward Thu 
night into Fri. Gale conditions are possible W of the front across
the north waters Thu night and Fri.