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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250447
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0444 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds have been
occurring off the coast of Morocco tonight in the marine 
zone Agadir and in the northeast portion of the marine zone 
Tarfaya, mainly from 29N to 31N, between the coast of Africa and 
11.5W. Seas in this area are currently 16 to 18 ft. Meteo-France 
is forecasting winds to diminish to below gale force after 
25/0300 UTC tonight. Seas will then gradually subside to below 
12 ft by early Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from near 05N10W to 00N20W to 02N33W. 
The ITCZ extends from 02N33W to 01N46W. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are depicted along both the Monsoon Trough and the 
ITCZ. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Bay of 
Campeche. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the NW Gulf 
of Mexico, in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh W winds 
are present in the NE Gulf, N of 29N and E of 87.5W. In the SE 
Gulf and Straits of Florida, moderate to locally fresh NW to N 
winds and seas 4 to 5 ft are present. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker, with seas 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front has moved SE of the basin this 
evening. A 1021 mb high pressure now resides across the NW Gulf, 
and will produce moderate NW to N winds to the E of 88W tonight 
before winds diminish. The high will slide E across the northern 
Gulf through Sun night and then into the Atlc Mon. Fresh 
southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf Sun 
night through Mon night, then expand into eastern portions Tue 
through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the 
NW Gulf Wed evening, then reach from the Florida Big Bend region 
to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from west-central Cuba near 22N81W to 
Cozumel, Mexico. Cloudiness and isolated showers are possible 
along the front from the Isle of Youth eastward. Moderate N 
winds are occurring across the Yucatan Channel. Mostly gentle 
northerly winds are occurring south of 20N and west of 77W. A 
trade wind regime is found east of 77W. Trades are gentle to 
moderate in the SW and central Caribbean, increasing to moderate 
to locally fresh closer to the coast of South America. The 
highest seas in the basin are 6 ft off the coast of Colombia, 
with generally 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere south of 17N and east of 
79W. South of 16N and west of 78W, seas are 2-4 ft. Seas are 1-3 
ft elsewhere. Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are 
found extending from near the Windward Passage to eastern 
Jamaica to near 14N78W. Another smaller patch of cloudiness with 
possible embedded isolated showers is located to the south of 
the Mona Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will 
continue across the Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia 
through early next week, strongest at nights. A cold front has 
entered the far NW Caribbean this evening, and will reach from 
the Windward Passage to E of the Gulf of Honduras Sun morning, 
then sink SE and extend from the N coast of Hispaniola to 
Jamaica by Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the western 
Atlantic Mon through Wed night and produce fresh to strong trade 
winds across central portions of the basin and through the 
Atlantic Passages. By Wed night, gales could develop offshore 
Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the east 
Atlantic Gale Warning offshore Morocco.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to the N coast of Cuba near
23N78W. Scattered moderate showers are within 100 nm of the 
front N of 28N and east of 63W, with isolated/lighter showers 
farther SW along the front. Strong SW winds and 10 to 14 ft seas 
are occurring along and within 180 nm E of the front, mainly N 
of 26.5N. Fresh SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are E of the front 
from 25N to 26.5N. To the west of the front, an area of strong 
to near-gale force WNW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas exists north of 
28N and east of 72W. Elsewhere west of the front, fresh WNW to 
NW winds prevail. Seas are exceeding 8 ft north of 25.5N between 
65W and 79W, with peak seas of 14 ft near 31N66W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1032 mb high 
pressure centered S of the Azores near 33N28W. A surface ridge 
extends SW from the high pressure to 25N59W. Winds are moderate 
or weaker with seas 6 to 7 ft within several hundred miles of 
the surface ridge. Fresh NE to ENE trades are generally to the 
east and inside a partial contour extending from 31N15W to 
24N36W to 13.5N46W to the west Coast of Africa. However, NNE to 
NE winds are strong N of 18N and east of 23W. West of 40W across 
this fresh wind area, seas are 7 to 9 ft. Seas are generally 9 
to 13 ft between 36W and the Canary Islands. Between the Canary 
Islands and the coast of Morocco, strong to gale force N to NNE 
winds and 12-18 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from just E 
of Bermuda, southwestward through the central Bahamas, and 
through W central Cuba. Strong SW winds will prevail within 210 
E of the cold front N of 26N tonight. Behind the front and N of 
27N, strong NW winds to near gale-force will prevail. Rough to 
very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with 
seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N Sun. The front will reach 
from 31N60W to NE Cuba Sun afternoon then gradually stall and 
weaken from 27N55W to the NE coast of Dominican Republic Tue. 
Farther E, a trough extends from 24N55W to the Leeward Islands, 
and will drift westward across the northern Leeward Islands 
through Sun night.

$$
KRV