AXNT20 KNHC 061040
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 39.0N 53.6W at 0900 UTC,
or 530 mi S of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving NE at 30 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Edouard is expected to
accelerate across the north central Atlantic during the next
couple of days. Little significant change in strength is forecast
while Edouard is forecast to become post- tropical later today.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 29W
from 00N-20N, is moving west at 15-20 kt. Saharan dust is
noted over much of the eastern Atlantic, mainly from 13N to 22N
east of 40W. Due to this associated dry air scattered moderate
convection is confined near the monsoon trough from 03N to
08N between 17W and 30W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 50W from 04N-
19N, is moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 09N-14N between 47W-55W.
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean extends along 67W from
05N-17N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is
currently noted with this wave.
The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 14N23W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 04N30W to 09N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ
between 31W and 46W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A low level trough persisting across the northern Gulf has shifted
northward and inland to along 30.5N, between southern Mississippi
and the Florida Panhandle. A small low pressure area along this
trough has also shifted NNE and inland overnight across the
central Florida Panhandle, accompanied by fresh to strong SW winds
and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Other squattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms persist across the northern Gulf north
of 27.5N from the southeast Louisiana coastal waters to the
Florida Big Bend. is centered over the north- central Gulf coast
near 30N88W. Moderate to fresh W to Sw winds continue south of
the trough. A thermal trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of
Campeche with scattered showers along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere a narrow ridge extends from the
Florida Keys to near 26N92W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
with seas of 2 to 4 ft outside of the ridge across the remainder
of the basin.
Fresh SW to W winds will prevail today across the NE waters E of
90W and the low level trough drifts northward. A narrow high
pressure ridge will persist along 25N-26N for the next several
days, with moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds prevailing
over the waters W of 93W. A low pressure trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening and freshen winds over the SW
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean.
A weakening upper trough extends from over the Windward Passage
to W Panama. Subsident northerly flow on the west side of this
feature has suppressed the convection across the basin. Surface
ridging north of the area is maintaining fresh trades over the
southern Caribbean, reaching 25 kt off of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate trades are noted across the basin. Seas range between 3-6
ft, with seas 7-8 ft north of Colombia.
A weak high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through Thu before increasing there Thu night and Fri.
Locally strong winds are expected tonight across the Gulf of
Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through midweek.
Expect increasing winds, seas and active weather over the Tropical
N Atlantic waters today through Tue with and behind a tropical
wave that will cross the Lesser Antilles and the eastern
See the Special Features section for information on T.S. Edouard
and the tropical waves moving across the basin.
A weak surface trough extends from the south side of T.S. Edouard
southwestward to near 31N74W. is analyzed in the western Atlantic
from 29N79W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm S
of this trough, as well as the west across the northwestern waters
to near 80W. A surface ridge extends along 26N-27N west of 55W,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist
over open waters. The weak high pressure ridge along 26N-27N will
gradually lift northward this week. Low pressure across the SE
U.S. will approach the coast of the Carolinas Wed through Thu and
drag a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters.
Increasing winds and seas are expected over the waters N of 27N
Wed through Fri as high pressure builds across the region.
Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure
near 41N30W to 30N46W, then WSW to the central Bahamas. Fresh to
strong trades and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted over much of the
eastern Atlantic between this ridge and the deep tropics. The
tropical wave along 50W will move across the tropical N Atlantic
waters and the Lesser Antilles today through Tue, bringing a
modest increase in winds and seas, and very active weather
southward of 14N.