000
AXNT20 KNHC 071725
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the 
northwestern Gulf later today and sweep over the basin early this 
week. Gale force N to NW winds are expected offshore of Veracruz 
Mon afternoon and evening, and will be accompanied by rough seas 
peaking near 11 ft. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and 
rough seas will occur over much of the Gulf into early Tue. Winds
and seas are expected to diminish from northwest to southeast Tue
into Wed as the front weakens and stalls. 

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06.5N11W and extends
to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 04N22W to 04N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N east of
19W, and from 02N to 09N between 26N and 37W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on 
upcoming gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.

A warm front extends over the northern Gulf from west-central 
Florida near 27N82.5W to 27N95W. Scattered showers are occurring 
near and to the north of this front, and gusty and erratic winds 
and rapidly building seas are expected near this activity. 
Moderate to fresh, with pockets of locally strong, N to NE winds 
are occurring north of this front as observed via recent 
scatterometer satellite data. South of the front, scatterometer 
data show moderate S to SW winds and slight to moderate seas over 
the rest of the basin. 

For the forecast, an old frontal boundary extending from Florida 
to offshore of SE Texas has begun to drift northward as a warm 
front. Scattered showers continue north of the boundary. Moderate 
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across 
the basin through this evening as the front weakens and drifts 
northward. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf 
tonight and overtake the current front, while sweeping across the 
basin through Tue. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW winds
and building seas in the wake of this front. Gale-force NW to N 
winds are expected to briefly occur off Veracruz Mon evening 
through midnight. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the
front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida, 
and high pressure settles across the central Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas will persist late Wed through the end of 
next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted on 
recent scatterometer data across the Caribbean Sea and through the
Atlantic Passages, as the pressure gradient prevails between a 
1010 mb low centered over the south-central basin and ridging to 
the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas to 8 ft are 
occurring offshore of northwestern Colombia. Rough seas of 8 to 9 
ft in E swell continue over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
and through the passages. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
prevail over the southwestern basin and in the Gulf of Honduras, 
supported by a weak surface trough and low-level moisture in the 
region. 

For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the basin along 
about 25N will support moderate to fresh E trade winds and 
moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through at 
least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent E-NE 
swell will support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and 
passages of the Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a
weakening cold front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on 
Tue and linger across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida 
through Wed. High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of 
America by the middle of next week, leading to strong winds and 
rough seas in the south-central Caribbean into late next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66.5W southwestward to 28N77W, where
it becomes stationary and continues through central Florida. 
Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to locally fresh
N to NE winds are occurring north of the front. No significant 
convection is noted near these fronts. Farther east, a surface 
trough has been analyzed from 30N41W to 27N49W. Scatterometer data
show moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring near the trough, 
with locally strong winds noted near 29N. A large NW swell is 
supporting rough seas over the central Atlantic near this feature 
generally north of 26N and east of 55W, stemming from a complex 
and strong low pressure system centered well north of the area. 
Ridging extends over much of the rest of the Atlantic, from a 1022
mb high centered near 28N24W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6
to 9 ft seas prevail south of 20N, with light to gentle winds and
5 to 7 ft seas noted along the ridge axis to 25N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds and 
moderate to rough seas will shift quickly eastward today with the 
aforementioned cold front, before it dissipates this evening. A 
complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move into 
the northwestern tropical Atlantic tonight and Mon, supporting 
widespread strong to near gale-force winds N of 27N, and building 
seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front
will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of 
Florida Tue morning, then gradually weaken and stall along about 
26N early Wed. Large N swell will move into the regional waters 
Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night. 

$$
ADAMS