AXNT20 KNHC 222304
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/2100 UTC, is near 31.9N
61.4W, about 200 nm E of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm in the NW quadrant and 300 nm in the NE
quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 600
nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, 560 nm in the SW
quadrant, and 510 nm in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights
are reaching 35 ft. A general northward motion is expected
through early Saturday with a faster motion toward the northeast
later that day. The center of Epsilon will pass well east of
Bermuda tonight. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for
the next couple of days before gradual weakening starts on
Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 21W, from 16N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N-08N between 18W-23W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-13N between 40W-46W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 16N
southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-12N between 52W-60W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 09N16W. The ITCZ starts west of a
tropical wave near 06N21W to 06N41W, then continues west of
another tropical wave near 06N44W to the coast of French Guiana
near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 250 nm of
GULF OF MEXICO...
A mid-level trough is approaching the NW Gulf. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the northern Gulf in addition
to portions of the south-central Gulf. A 1009 mb low is in the
Bay of Campeche near 20N90W with a trough extending from that
low to 24N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N-
23N east of 93W to the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate northwest
winds are noted west of the trough and moderate to fresh easterly
winds continue across the northern and eastern Gulf. Seas are
averaging 3-6 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern
Gulf through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf
Sat, reach from central Florida to southern Texas Sat night,
then stall and dissipate on Sun. Gentle to moderate return flow
will establish across the basin on Mon.
A 1009 mb low is off the Yucatan coast near 18N86W with a trough
extending along the low 12N80W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted in the central Caribbean from 11N-19N across
the Windward Passage between 69W-81W. Isolated thunderstorms
have diminished in the Gulf of Honduras as low pressure gradually
lifts NW. A 1009 mb low is in the SW Caribbean near 12N74W with
the monsoon trough extending westward to the Costa Rica and
Panama coast near 09N82W. Moderate to fresh trades are in the
central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas are
averaging 3-6 ft.
Troughing across the western Caribbean extending from a 1009 mb
near Cozumel southeastward to 13N81W will continue to provide
widespread showers and thunderstorms over the western half of
the Caribbean through early next week. Winds and seas will
increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean on
Sat through Mon as a tropical wave, currently near 44W, moves
across the area.
Outside of Hurricane Epsilon, a trough over the Florida east
coast is bringing scattered moderate convection to portions
of northern Florida and South Florida. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is to the east of Epsilon from
19N-26N between 49W-55W. Otherwise, surface ridging extends
across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high, east
of the Azores, near 36N39W. Moderate easterly winds are in the
western Atlantic off the coasts of Florida and the Bahamas.
Seas are averaging 6-8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh ENE
winds are noted in the central and eastern Atlantic with seas
averaging 6-9 ft.
Hurricane Epsilon near 31.9N 61.4W 968 mb will continue to
move N of the area and is forecast to be near 33.0N 61.6W by
Fri morning. The gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and
large seas over the western waters through Fri. Long-period
northeast swell will continue to impact the waters north and
northeast of the Bahamas through early Sat.