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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 270559

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 AM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.


...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant 
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. 
Please refer to the local meteorological service for more 


A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic analyzed
along 25W from 12N-00N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are seen within the vicinity of this wave axis. 

A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
with axis along 56W and from 14N-04S. The wave is moving at around
15 kt. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted 
along the wave's axis. 


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 04N24W, then continues 
from 03N26W to 02S43W. Scattered showers are present along the 
monsoon trough mainly from 04N-07N between 17W-23W, in addition 
to scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 
01N-05N and east of 12W to the Ivory Coast. Scattered moderate 
convection is also noted along the ITCZ near the coast of Brazil 
from 01S-01N between 36W-42W. 


Surface ridging continues across the basin from a 1019 mb high 
pressure over southern Alabama near 33N86W. Fair weather prevails
across the Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle 
easterly winds in the northeast Gulf, with moderate east- 
southeasterly winds for the rest of the basin with the exception
of fresh northeast winds over the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to 
fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues
over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W.
There are two surface trough in the basin, one across the Florida
Peninsula and the other on the Bay of Campeche. At this time, no 
significant convection is observed near the troughs. A trough in
the Yucatan Peninsula is producing isolated showers from 22N-23N.

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will 
maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf 
and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through Thu. A trough 
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula each day and moving into the 
southwestern Gulf late at night and in the mornings will support 
locally fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Smoke from 
fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of 
the southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the 
early part of the week


Scattered moderate to strong convection continues across the 
southwest Caribbean off the Central American and Colombian coasts.
See the above section for more details on the excessive rainfall 
threat over Central America. 

Moderate to strong convection is in the southern coast of Cuba 
and Hispaniola. Some of these storms are moving into adjacent 
waters. Jamaica and Puerto Rico are also experiencing scattered
thunderstorms. Meanwhile, isolated showers are moving across 
portions of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
across most of the Caribbean, with light winds in the Bay of 
Honduras and fresh to strong winds north of Colombia. 

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. 
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much 
of the western Caribbean through at least the early part of the 
week. A tropical wave along 57W will move across the rest of the 
Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon, then across the eastern 
Caribbean Mon afternoon through Tue, then across the central 
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night while it loses its identity.


Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves 
currently moving across the basin. 

A cold front enters the west-central Atlantic near 31N46W and 
extends westward to 21N72W near the southern Bahamas, and curves
north to 30N76W. Ahead of the front, a trough extends from 26N48W
to 19N55W. Showers are seen along the front and the trough, 
particularly north of 23N. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails 
across the remainder of the basin. 

A cold front extending from near 29N78W to 21N73W and to near 
23N65W will continue south-southeastward through early Mon before 
becoming stationary near 24N from the Bahamas and eastward during 
Mon. The front will dissipate by late Mon night. A high pressure 
ridge will build behind the front along roughly 28N through Wed, 
then shift slightly northward late Wed through Fri night. 

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