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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 212338

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
738 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.


Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 23.0N 65.8W at 21/2100 UTC
or 560 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 19N-24N between 61W-67W. Jerry will continue moving NW away
from Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday, then gradually accelerate 
northeastward by early next week. Little change in strength is 
forecast during the next several days. See the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or for more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 58W and S of 16N is 
moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict 
this wave well. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-15N 
between 48W-60W. The latest ASCAT pass shows that the wave 
contains strong to near-gale force winds on both sides of the 
wave axis from 11N-16N. The wave is forecast to cross the Windward
Islands on Sunday. Environmental conditions appear to be 
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could 
form later this weekend or early next week. Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser 
Antilles this weekend along with gusty winds, and interests on 
those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this 
disturbance. This system has a medium chance for tropical 
development during the next 48 hours.

A tropical wave over west Africa with axis along 14W and S of 19N
is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N-14N between 08W-16W. The tropical wave is forecast to 
move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday morning. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next
week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical 
Atlantic. This system has a medium chance for tropical 
development during the next 48 hours.


An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 31W and S of 19N is 
moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict 
this wave well. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N- 
13N between 29W-40W.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
12N16W to 07N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N37W to 10N54W. Aside 
from the convection mentioned in the sections above, no other 
significant convection is noted at this time.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb 
high centered over the Carolinas. This feature is keeping an east
to southeast flow across much of the basin. Latest scatterometer 
data depicts fresh to strong E winds over the eastern Gulf north 
of 24N and east of 90W, while gentle to moderate winds prevail farther
south and west. An upper-level trough axis extends from just 
offshore North Carolina to Daytona Beach Florida to the east- 
central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence to the southeast 
of this trough axis is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms 
over the SE Gulf waters from 23N-25N between 80W-86W.

High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend. 
The pressure gradient will tighten over the eastern Gulf through 
Sun, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building 
seas. New high pressure will develop over the northern Gulf by 
early next week with the pressure gradient slackening and wind and
sea conditions improving through the middle of the week. 


A 1011 mb surface low is centered just east of the eastern tip of
Jamaica near 17N76W. A surface trough extends from the low to
eastern Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over 
E Cuba, Jamaica, and nearby waters. In the far SW Caribbean, the
East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate 
convection south of 12N between 70W-75W. Latest scatterometer 
data depicts light to gentle winds across much of the basin.

Large northerly swell will continue to pass through the NE
Caribbean passages through Sunday. A strong tropical wave along 
58W will cross the Windward Islands on Sunday, bringing squally 
weather. See the Special Features section above for details.


Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Tropical Storm Jerry. 

A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a
cold front from 31N55W to 29N60W, then becoming stationary from
that point to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm SE of the front. Similar activity is also affecting the far
west Atlantic reaching the southern Florida, northern Bahamas, 
and adjacent waters. Due to the pressure gradient across the western 
Atlantic, strong NE winds around 20-25 kt cover the entire area 
north of the front from 25N-30N between 61W and the east coast of
Florida, as shown by the latest ASCAT pass. To the east, a 1022 
mb high is centered near 32N39W. A cold front enters the east 
Atlantic near 31N19W to 27N33W. 

Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 24.3N 66.9W Sun morning, 25.8N 
67.6W Sun afternoon, and 27.0N 67.8W Mon morning. Jerry will 
change little in intensity as it curves to the north Monday 
afternoon, then approach Bermuda Tuesday and move farther north of
the area Wednesday. Meanwhile, large remnant northerly swell will
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters N of the Bahamas 
through Sunday.