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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 250145

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


A strong 1014 mb low pressure that resides along a robust 
surface trough extending from 29N28W to 12N40W is supporting 
gale-force winds. These winds have generated swell that is 
causing seas of 7 to 9 ft to reach as far west as 40W. In 
addition, a broad area of scattered moderate convection is 
observed on satellite imagery from 17N to 28N, east of 37W to 
the W African coast. The winds are forecast to diminish below 
gale-force at 25/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France 
High Seas Forecast, that is on the website:
etarea2 for more details.


The monsoon trough extends south of the African Continent along 
04N08W to 04N10W. The ITCZ continues near 04N10W to 03N29W to 
00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 00N to 11N between 11W to 25W and from 03S to 07N between 
25W and 37W.


A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near Corpus Christi, Texas 
with an attendant surface trough from 28N96W extending southward
across the far western Gulf, 50 nm offshore the Mexican coast
near 19N94W. Fresh southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
east of the trough to 91W and S of 27N. Scattered moderate 
convection can be found within 120 nm of the western Gulf Coast, 
N of 22N and W of 93W. The remainder of the basin remains under 
the influence of a 1018 mb high pressure centered just offshore 
Louisiana near 29N92W, bringing gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow and seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, low pressure along the middle Texas coast will
move E across the northern Gulf through Tue night. This low and 
its associated cold front will bring strong to near gale-force 
winds, higher seas, and thunderstorms to the region. High 
pressure will bring more tranquil conditions Wed night through 
Thu. Another cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Fri, 
and may bring gales to portions of the SW Gulf starting Fri night
with building seas.


Strong winds continue within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, due 
to the tight gradient between high pressure N of the basin and a 
1008 mb low over N Colombia. Latest scatterometer satellite data 
suggest seas reaching 7 to 9 ft are noted south of 13N to the 
coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh 
NE to E trades dominate, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, and no 
convection noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombian 
will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Fri night. Generally gentle to moderate trades will 
prevail elsewhere. A cold front may approach the NW Caribbean by 
Fri night and bring fresh to strong winds with building seas 
through the weekend. 


Please see Special Features sections for information on the Gale 
Warning E of 35W. 

A stationary front extends from 31N59W to a 1009mb low pressure 
near 27N72W to 24N76W. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the
front from 30N60W to 23N69W. Fresh to locally strong SW to S 
winds are observed behind the front N of 31N and within 180 nm of
the prefrontal boundary, N of 27N, where seas are 8 to 12 ft and
scattered moderate convection is also noted. A 1014 mb low press
is analyzed near 24N32W with a surface trough that extends from
29N29W to 12N40W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 18N
to 29N and between 37W to the Canary Islands. Otherwise, winds 
are generally moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail W of 50W. 
Farther E, across the central and tropical Atlantic, mainly 
moderate trades dominate with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low that is along the 
stationary front that extends from S of Bermuda is forecast to 
lift NE and out of the area Tue, as the front dissipates. 
Another low pressure will move offshore FL Tue night, with 
strong to near gale-force northerly winds likely behind its 
associated cold front Wed night and Thu.