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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 231001

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing
winds to gale force offshore Colombia early this morning, with
seas of 8 to 10 ft. The ridge will shift some east and weaken
slightly by tonight, allowing for gales to end. However, winds
will pulse to near gale each night into mid week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the website, for more details. 


The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African 
continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 
06N10W to 05N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 19W and 33W.


A cold front has now stalled from the Florida Straits to Yucatan
Peninsula. Localized strong N winds are occurring in the western
Bay of Campeche, along with a broader area of 8 to 10 ft seas.
These winds are behind enhanced by a surface trough that stretches
just offshore the Mexican coast. Otherwise, moderate to fresh 
mainly NE winds prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. No significant 
convection is occurring along the front or elsewhere in the basin,
which is being dominated by high pressure that is centered over

The stationary front will dissipate later today. In the wake of 
the front, fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in the SW Gulf will 
also decrease today as high pressure crosses N of the region. Low 
pressure will emerge off the Texas coast Mon evening, then track 
across the northern and eastern Gulf into Wed. Strong winds and 
higher seas are likely with this low and behind its associated 
cold front. 


Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
gale warning off the coast of Colombia. 

Outside of the Colombian Basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail,
except over the NW Caribbean, where gentle NE winds are occurring.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Dry
conditions are suppressing any convection over the basin. 

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure 
in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support strong 
to gale conditions offshore Colombia early this morning, with near
gale conditions possibly pusling nightly early this week. 
Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weak 
cold front will move through waters near western Cuba today, 
before dissipating tonight. Another cold front may approach the NW
Caribbean Tue night into Wed.


A cold front extends from just E of Bermuda through the NW Bahamas
and into the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 nm on either side of the boundary. Moderate to
locally fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are observed behind
the front, with mainly moderate SW flow and seas of 5 to 7 ft to
the S and E of the front to 60W. Gentle to moderate trades
generally prevail S of 25N, with light to gentle winds to the
north. A surface trough along 35W is inducing scattered convection
from 10N to 20N between 25W and 35W, along with locally fresh
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft. Seas across the remainder of the
basin are 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front extending from just E 
of Bermuda through the NW Bahamas and into the Florida Straits 
will move E into Tue, then stall and dissipate over eastern 
section of the area. The next cold front will move off the SE U.S.
by Wed, and may bring strong winds behind it starting Wed night.