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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201139
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details on the special features
listed below:

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends across the basin from Ft. Myers Florida to
23N90W to 21N93.5W, then stationary to 18.5N96W. Gale force NW 
winds currently occurring offshore Veracruz will last through 
this evening, diminishing overnight. Seas will range from 10-14 
ft.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale force winds are off the coast of Colombia. Winds are 
forecast to diminish below gale force around 20/1200 UTC this
morning. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft in this area.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front that currently extends from 32N73W to Ft. Pierce
Florida will extend from 31N60W through the Bahamas to eastern
Cuba Tuesday evening. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop
along the front Tue and Wed to the east of the NW Bahamas. Gale 
force N winds are expected to develop west of the low by Tuesday 
evening. The gales should occur north of 28N and west of 76W 
Tuesday evening, spreading slowly eastward on Wed. Seas will build
to 12-18 ft Tue night into Wed morning.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands,
Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean passages through today
before subsiding tonight into Tuesday. Large surf, dangerous rip 
currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic-
facing shores of these islands through today. See information from
your local or national meteorological service for more specific 
information on beach hazards in your area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W 
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 00N28W to 01N37W to
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 
04W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04S-03N between
23W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico south
of 21N and west of 95W. See the section above for details. A cold
front extends across the basin from Ft. Myers Florida to 23N90W to
21N93.5W, then stationary to 18.5N96W. Strong N to NE winds cover
the Gulf of Mexico north of the front. Scattered showers are over
the SW portion of the basin, south of 25N and west of 93W.
Isolated showers are elsewhere ahead of and along the cold front,
including over the Florida Straits. Clearing skies are noted north
of 27N as surface ridging builds in.

The front over the Gulf of Mexico will continue moving SE and exit
the basin late this afternoon. Fresh to strong N winds will
continue through Tue in the wake of the front. The gales offshore
Veracruz will prevail into tonight. As high pressure builds into 
the Gulf, winds and seas will diminish Tue night, except in the SE
Gulf, where N winds will become strong due to strengthening low 
pressure east of the NW Bahamas. As the high moves east, strong 
southerly winds will develop in the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia are forecast to
diminish after 20/1200 UTC this morning. Also, large northerly 
swell currently affecting the NE Caribbean passages will continue 
through today and subside tonight. See the special features 
section above for details.

A stationary front extends across the far northeast portion of the
basin from 18N60W to Puerto Rico near 18N66W. Isolated showers 
are noted across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. The air is relatively dry over
the eastern half of the basin due to mid-level anticyclonic flow
and subsidence. Fresh trades prevail from 10N-18N between 60W-80W,
with strong to near gale winds from 10N-16N between 70W-78W.

As the pressure gradient over the Caribbean weakens, gales will 
end this morning off the coast of Colombia. Long-period N swell 
will continue to create very large seas and hazardous marine 
conditions across the Tropical North Atlantic and along Atlantic 
facing shores of the Lesser Antilles today, before gradually 
subsiding into mid-week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
this afternoon and reach a line from eastern Cuba to the N Coast 
of Honduras by Tue evening. Behind the front, expect strong N 
winds and higher seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning over 
the far west Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 32N73W to Ft. Pierce Florida. Fresh to
strong N winds are behind the front. Strong SW winds are ahead of
the front, north of 30N between 61W-73W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen within 30 nm behind and 45 nm ahead of the 
front, mainly north of 27N and east of 78W. Lines of scattered 
moderate showers extend from the NW Bahamas to the Florida 
Straits, to the east and south of Miami and Key Largo. A 1027 mb 
high near 32N50W extends a surface ridge axis from the high to 
27N60W to 25N70W, leading to fair weather north of 20N between 
40W-68W. A cold front enters the area near 32N32W and extends to 
23N35W to 18N42W to 17N51W, and continues as a stationary front to
18N65W. Isolated showers are along the front. Another cold front
enters the Atlantic from the coast of Morocco near 31N10W and
extends to 32N18W to the Azores. Isolated showers are seen south
of the front over the Canary Islands. Altimeter passes over the 
central Atlantic between 20/0000 UTC and 20/0500 UTC show
significant wave heights in the 14 to 19 ft range from 16N-31N 
between 50W-54W.

Large seas E of the Turks and Caicos Islands will gradually 
subside today from W to E. Large seas of 13-16 ft are expected
today within the area bounded by 31N47W to 19N63W to 11N56W to
19N35W to 31N35W to 31N47W. The cold front from 32N73W to Ft. 
Pierce Florida will reach the NW Bahamas this afternoon, then move
through the Bahamas and into eastern Cuba by Tue evening. Low 
pressure is forecast to develop along this front to the east of 
the Bahamas Tue into Wed. The pressure gradient between this low 
and high pressure building into the SE U.S. will be quite tight, 
causing gale force northerly winds to develop by Tue evening N of 
the Bahamas. Strong to near gale force N winds are also possible 
along the east coast of Florida and the NW Bahamas.

$$
Hagen