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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 242200

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.


The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 02N to 10N, moving 
W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is discussed below in the
monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W from 14N southward, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is 
occurring over water.


The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 05N19W to 01N37W. The
ITCZ continues from 01N37W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 11W and 18W, 
and from 00N to 05N between 18W and 32W. 


Low pressure of 1006 mb is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N94W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the
vicinity of the low. Moderate to fresh southerly flow prevails
west of 90W with gentle to moderate southerly winds east of 90W.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 90W and 2-4 ft east of 90W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow is 
expected again tonight in the far western Gulf as the gradient 
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower 
pressure over Mexico tightens. Winds will also pulse to fresh to 
strong near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and
Wed evening. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail elsewhere 
through Wed with moderate seas. A cold front is expected to move 
into the western Gulf Wed night and weaken as it reaches from the
NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It will be 
followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
Fri and Sat as weak high pressure ridging settles over the basin.


The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1021 mb centered
north of the area near 30N73W and climatological low pressure
across Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the 
south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted 
over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the
eastern Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, pulsing to
strong north of Honduras tonight and Wed night. Fresh to strong 
winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night starting
tonight and lasting through the weekend. 


A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N73W, leading to 
fairly benign weather across the western Atlantic. Light to
gentle winds are near the low center. Gentle to moderate winds 
are elsewhere west of 60W. A weak 1015 mb low is centered near
27N64W, with two troughs farther east. The first trough extends
from 31N47W to 28N54W, with the second trough extending from
31N41W to 25N48W. Gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity of
the troughs. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of 20N.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 20N. Seas are in the
3-4 ft range west of 65W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere north of 20N.
South of 20N, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. 

For the forecast west of 65W, The area of high pressure will 
remain nearly stationary through Wed night while gradually 
weakening. The area of high pressure will shift eastward Thu 
through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the
southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow 
for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the
period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds from 
north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas.