Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 191053

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
553 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC. 

...Special Features...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale warning...

On 20/1800 UTC a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will extend 
from 30N85W to 21N88W. Gale force NW winds will be N of 25N W 
of 91W, with seas 10 to 13 FT. 

...Atlantic Gale warning... 

On 21/0600 UTC Gale force S to SW winds will be in advance of a 
cold front, NW of line from 31N69W to 23N81W, with seas to 11 ft.


The monsoon trough passes from N Liberia near 07N11W to 04N18W. 
The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to N Brazil near 00N50W.
Isolated moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon trough from
00N-05N between 00W-16W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 02S-05N between 27W-50W. 


A surface trough is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 30N94W to
27N97W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough. A 1019 
mb high is centered over N Louisiana near 32N91W. 5-15 kt E to SE
surface winds are over the Gulf, E of the trough, with strongest 
winds over the NW Gulf. 

An upper level low over central Texas is progressing eastward 
supporting diffluence across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. 

A strong cold front with widespread thunderstorm
activity will race across the Gulf waters tonight through early 
Fri. Gale force winds will develop west of the front on Thu, with
seas building to near 20 ft. A post-frontal surface high 
pressure will set up over the central gulf on Sat, and move to 
the NE waters on Sun. 


A 1014 mb surface low is centered over the west Caribbean near 
17N86W. A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 
20N89W to the low center to 16N82W. Scattered showers are over the
NW Caribbean from 16N-21N between 82W-89W. Scatterometer data 
depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the Caribbean. 
Fresh to strong winds are noted south of 15N between 72W-78W. 

Fresh to strong winds will continue across the south-central 
Caribbean through Sun, increasing to near gale force near the 
coast of Colombia each night. A frontal trough will drift NW and 
slowly dissipate in the NW Caribbean today. Strong southerly flow 
will develop across the W Caribbean tonight ahead of a cold front 
entering the Yucatan Channel on Thu. The front will reach from the
Windward Passage to Nicaragua this weekend.


The tail-end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 30N57W 
to 28N70W to 31N77W. A surface trough is over the central 
Atlantic from 31N53W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 90 nm E of trough N of 25N. Scattered 
showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the trough. A 1025 mb high 
is over the E Atlantic near 29N33W. 

The surface trough will drift NW today. Strong southerly flow 
will develop north of the Bahamas on Thu, increasing to minimal 
gale force Thu night on both sides of a strong cold front moving 
off Florida. The front will reach from 29N65W to Hispaniola Sat 
night, with associated winds and seas steadily subsiding on Sun 
and Mon.

For additional information please visit 


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 19-Dec-2018 10:53:47 UTC