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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 03N to 18N, moving W
at 15 kt. Abundant cloudiness surrounds the wave's axis but 
convection is limited.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W from 02N to 18N, moving W
at about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
05N to 09N between 44W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W from 06N to 21N, moving W
at about 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection associated to 
this wave is noted from 11N to 17N between 59W and 64W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W from 09N to 21N. Moisture
associated to this tropical wave is supporting scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms across western Hispaniola. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of western Africa near
16N16W to 06.6N23W to 05.5N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N26W 
to 05N31W to 04.5N43W to 05N53W. Outside of the convection 
associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection 
is from 06N to 09N between 34W and 43W, and from 05N to 08N 
between 50W and 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low pressure centered over NE Mexico border near 
25.5N99W continues to produce a large area of showers NE Mexico. 
The low will continue to weaken today, with associated convection 
decreasing.

A broad ridge will persist over the northern Gulf, and support 
light winds and seas less than 3 ft east of 88W through the 
upcoming weekend.

A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each 
afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf during the 
overnight hours, accompanied by fresh to occasionally strong east
to southeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving into the the western Caribbean. Another
tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean. See Tropical 
Waves section for details. Expect increasing showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in association with the passage of these tropical 
waves.

High pressure N of area is forecast to strengthen over the next
couple of days while moving westward. As a result, the trade 
winds over the south-central Caribbean will strengthen and expand
in areal coverage across the basin through early next week. Winds
could reach near gale force along the coast of Colombia by Sun 
night. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras 
each night beginning tonight through Mon night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation centered
near 26N66W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are 
noted on the SE semicircle of the low affecting mainly the waters 
from 21N to 27N between 64W and 70W. 

High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 33N37W extends a ridge 
westward across the forecast area. Fresh trades are noted along 
the southern periphery of the ridge, but mainly between 40W-70W. 
This high pressure will slowly shift westward through Sat night, 
then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W through Tue. The 
tightening pressure gradient that results over the central 
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8-10
ft E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W by early Sat morning. 
These marine conditions will persist on Sun.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AL