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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



838 
AXNT20 KNHC 231722
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 14N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 01N to 06N between 30W and 
40w. Other nearby precipitation is more related to the monsoon 
trough and the ITCZ.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of 
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N15W, 05N18W, and 
04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to 04N29W, 03N36W, to 
03N45W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong 
rainshowers are from 02N to 06N between 06W and 13W, including 
in southern sections of Liberia. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere 07N southward from 30W 
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are 
from 09N southward between 50W and 57W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico 
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, that extends from the W Atlantic Ocean into the 
NE Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh to strong SE winds across 
the western Gulf of Mexico through Friday. The wind speeds will 
diminish and become more easterly across most of the basin 
during this weekend. High pressure will reorganize itself across 
the W Atlantic Ocean, and it will build W along 32N into SE 
Louisiana. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain 
hazy skies in the western and SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through western Nicaragua, to the 
coast of Panama that is near 09N79W, into northern Colombia 
along 10N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are from 14N southward from 75W westward, and inland 
in parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. An upper level 
trough extends from NW Nicaragua into the west central sections 
of the Caribbean Sea. A separate upper level trough extends from 
the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico, just to the north of NW Cuba, 
toward Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers 
are elsewhere from 70W westward.

The current rainshowers, that are covering Central America from 
Honduras to Costa Rica and in the far eastern North Pacific 
Ocean, have been heavy at times during the last few days. The 
precipitation is associated with a broad area of low pressure 
that has moved inland in Central America. It is likely that 
locally heavy rains may continue in parts of Central America 
during the next few days. It is possible that the rain may cause 
flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. 
Please read the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the eastern 
North Pacific Ocean, MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC, for more details.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that 
ended at 23/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in 
Guadeloupe, 0.20 in Bermuda, and 0.10 in Freeport in the Bahamas.

High pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade 
winds across most of the south central Caribbean Sea and the 
Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. Broad low pressure in Central 
America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean will persist 
through this weekend, in order to produce active weather across 
the SW Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave will move into the 
tropical Atlantic Ocean waters late on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N69W. Upper 
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that extends from 20N 
to 30N between 60W and 80W. A cold front is passing through 
32N51W 27N67W 26N73W 27N78W. The cold front is dissipating from 
27N78W to 30N81W. A surface trough is along 29N56W 24N65W and 
into central Hispaniola. Isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that 
passes through 32N48W to 28N54W to 25N61W, and from 20N to 26N 
between 63W and 70W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere 
from 60W westward from 20N northward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that 
is near 32N25W, through 28N35W, to 21N58W.

An upper level trough extends from a southern Morocco cyclonic 
circulation center, to 24N24W, to a 24N49W cyclonic circulation 
center. Rainshowers are possible within 480 nm on either side of 
the trough.

The current cold front that is to the west of 50W will continue 
to move southward through Friday. It will stall, and dissipate 
slowly along 25N from Friday night through Sunday. A broad 
inverted trough will persist N of Hispaniola through Friday. A 
second cold front will move southward, into the northern waters 
on Saturday morning, and gradually merge with remnants of the 
current cold front along 24N/25N from Sunday night through 
Monday.

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt