AXNT20 KNHC 231722
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 01N to 06N between 30W and
40w. Other nearby precipitation is more related to the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N15W, 05N18W, and
04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to 04N29W, 03N36W, to
03N45W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
rainshowers are from 02N to 06N between 06W and 13W, including
in southern sections of Liberia. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere 07N southward from 30W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 09N southward between 50W and 57W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure, that extends from the W Atlantic Ocean into the
NE Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh to strong SE winds across
the western Gulf of Mexico through Friday. The wind speeds will
diminish and become more easterly across most of the basin
during this weekend. High pressure will reorganize itself across
the W Atlantic Ocean, and it will build W along 32N into SE
Louisiana. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain
hazy skies in the western and SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days.
The monsoon trough passes through western Nicaragua, to the
coast of Panama that is near 09N79W, into northern Colombia
along 10N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 14N southward from 75W westward, and inland
in parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. An upper level
trough extends from NW Nicaragua into the west central sections
of the Caribbean Sea. A separate upper level trough extends from
the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico, just to the north of NW Cuba,
toward Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are elsewhere from 70W westward.
The current rainshowers, that are covering Central America from
Honduras to Costa Rica and in the far eastern North Pacific
Ocean, have been heavy at times during the last few days. The
precipitation is associated with a broad area of low pressure
that has moved inland in Central America. It is likely that
locally heavy rains may continue in parts of Central America
during the next few days. It is possible that the rain may cause
flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
Please read the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the eastern
North Pacific Ocean, MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC, for more details.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 23/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in
Guadeloupe, 0.20 in Bermuda, and 0.10 in Freeport in the Bahamas.
High pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade
winds across most of the south central Caribbean Sea and the
Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. Broad low pressure in Central
America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean will persist
through this weekend, in order to produce active weather across
the SW Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave will move into the
tropical Atlantic Ocean waters late on Sunday.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N69W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that extends from 20N
to 30N between 60W and 80W. A cold front is passing through
32N51W 27N67W 26N73W 27N78W. The cold front is dissipating from
27N78W to 30N81W. A surface trough is along 29N56W 24N65W and
into central Hispaniola. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that
passes through 32N48W to 28N54W to 25N61W, and from 20N to 26N
between 63W and 70W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 60W westward from 20N northward.
A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N25W, through 28N35W, to 21N58W.
An upper level trough extends from a southern Morocco cyclonic
circulation center, to 24N24W, to a 24N49W cyclonic circulation
center. Rainshowers are possible within 480 nm on either side of
The current cold front that is to the west of 50W will continue
to move southward through Friday. It will stall, and dissipate
slowly along 25N from Friday night through Sunday. A broad
inverted trough will persist N of Hispaniola through Friday. A
second cold front will move southward, into the northern waters
on Saturday morning, and gradually merge with remnants of the
current cold front along 24N/25N from Sunday night through
For additional information please