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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211743

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W from 05N-20N, 
moving west at 10-15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows 
moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. 
Scattered showers are present over the Windward Islands from 10N- 
15N between 57W-65W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W from 08N-18N, 
moving west at 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, 
as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the wave axis. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W 
to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 08N29W to 06N36W to 
07N42W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is off the coast of W Africa from 06N-16N 
between 18W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-14N
between 33W-44W. 


A cold front is over the northern Gulf waters from 28N81W to 
27N90W to a 1016 mb low near 26N96W. A stationary front extends 
southward from the low to 20N97W. A prefrontal trough is over the
SW Gulf from 21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 17N-24N between 94W-98W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm 
of the remainder of the fronts. 20-30 kt N winds are NW of the 
fronts. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds with
mostly fair weather. 

The surface low will persist over the NW Gulf through Tue with
associated frontal systems. 


Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from 
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. The tropical wave along
85W is also interacting with the monsoon trough. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean 
from 08N-11N between 80W-83W. Farther east, Total Precipitable 
Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern 
Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 61W-68W. 

Upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of 
Colombia and the SW Caribbean.  


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N73W to N Florida near
28N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N54W to 

Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over
the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting the cold front. 
An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 
28N54W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is producing 
scattered moderate convection from 22N-34N between 49W-53W. 

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