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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 191207

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13N43W to 05N45W moving
W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are ahead of the southern end of
the wave from 05-06N between 46W-48W. A surface trough is along 
36W from 08N-15N. The southernmost part of the wave along 45W 
moved comparatively faster than the northernmost part of the 
tropical wave. This surface trough represents that part of the 
wave that has remained as the wave became stretched out on a NE- 
to-SW line. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 11N to 14N 
between 29W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from Haiti southward
moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
14N between 65W-78W, including inland in Colombia and Venezuela
and along the coasts of those countries. 24-hour rainfall totals 
that are listed for the period that ended at 19/0000 UTC, 
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC, are 1.66 in Curacao.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave reached 90W/91W from the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico southward. The wave has been absorbed into the
Central American Gyre since the 19/0000 UTC map analysis. The 
western end of an upper level trough is present in a central 
Guatemala upper level cyclonic circulation center. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is over central Guatemala.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are also over northern Belize and
the Yucatan Peninsula.


The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa without reaching 
the coastal sections of Guinea. The ITCZ passes through the 
coastal sections of Guinea near 10N15W, to 07N20W, to 04N29W, to 
04N34W. Scattered to numerous moderate rainshowers are within 150
nm north and 330 nm south of the ITCZ between the coast of Africa
and 34W. The ITCZ also extends from 10N46W to 09N59W. Scattered
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 150 nm north of
the ITCZ between 53W-58W.


A cold front extends westward from New Port Richey Florida near 
28N83W to 28N90W, where it becomes a stationary front. The
stationary front extends westward to 28N96W, then southward to
near 25N96W to 18N94W at the northern part of the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the
western Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N between 94W-97W and along the
middle Texas coast between Freeport and Corpus Christi. Isolated
showers are seen elsewhere from 22N-27N west of 92W.

The E-W portion of the stationary front is expected to dissipate 
today. The N-S portion of the front in the western Gulf will
likely transition to a trough with convection persisting into the
weekend. The winds and sea heights will diminish in the western 
Gulf of Mexico as the front weakens. A cold front will enter the 
Gulf waters on Saturday, extend from central Florida to southern 
Texas on Sunday, stall and weaken Sunday night and Monday, and 
then lift northward as a warm front early next week.


An upper level trough is across the NE part of the Caribbean Sea 
to Hispaniola, with broad upper level cyclonic flow extending to the
Cayman Islands, and as far west as near Cozumel. Comparatively 
drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N 
northward from 70W eastward. An upper level trough also extends 
from the Windward Passage toward NW Venezuela that is along 70W.
Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is over the NE Caribbean from 14N-
20N between 79W-85W.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the region through 
Tuesday. Highest winds are expected near the Windward Passage, 
south of Hispaniola, and south of E Cuba through Sat. 


A cold front passes through 32N55W to 28N70W to just S of Cape
Canaveral Florida near 28N80W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are
along and within 120 nm ahead of the front between east of 65W
with only isolated showers west of 65W.

An upper level trough is along 28N47W extending all the way to the
NE Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 50W from 18N-30N. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 17N to 27N 
between 40W and 55W.

Fresh to strong NE winds, and building seas, are expected to the 
north of the cold front over the western Atlantic through today. 
A second cold front will move off northern Florida on Saturday 
night, with fresh to strong NE winds and building seas, behind the
front through Monday.

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