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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 200525

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the western Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front extends from Tallahassee Florida to the Bay 
of Campeche near 18N94W as of 20/0300 UTC. ASCAT data and recent 
surface observations indicate that gale force winds are occurring
from 21N-27N west of 95W. The gales will continue tonight over 
the western Gulf of Mexico, diminishing below gale Sunday morning.
Strong winds will then taper off across the basin from west to 
east on Sunday night.

...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic... 

Southerly winds will increase over the western Atlantic tonight 
ahead of the cold front that is currently moving eastward in the
Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will move into the Atlantic east 
of Florida on Sunday, and reach from 30N65W to SE Cuba Monday 
morning. Gale force winds are forecast N of 30N E of front as the
front moves eastward. Seas will build to over 17 feet.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central 
Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near
gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night.

For additional information on all of these warning areas, please 
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers 


The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N09W 
and extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 01S-03N between 25W-45W.


As of 20/0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from Tallahassee 
Florida to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A line of strong 
thunderstorms accompanies the front north of 26N. Additional 
scattered thunderstorms are seen farther east over the NE Gulf of 
Mexico. Scattered showers are elsewhere along and within 120 nm 
ahead of the front. A reinforcing cold front is analyzed roughly 
90 nm behind the first cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Both cold
fronts are moving quickly eastward. Refer to the section above 
for more details on the gales.

Fresh to strong SW to S return flow will shift eastward across 
the N Gulf of Mexico tonight, to the east of the strong cold 
front. NW gale force winds are in the W sections of the Gulf of 
Mexico now, from 21N to 27N W of 95N. The gale-force winds are 
forecast to move southward along the coast of Mexico tonight, 
being S of 20N of 94W. Expect the cold front to pass through 
26N82W beyond the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday 
morning, and continue moving SE and out of the area during Sunday 
afternoon. A squall line will precede the front as it crosses the 
Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force NW winds will be blowing
across the Gulf waters tonight and Sunday to the west of the cold
front, elsewhere. The wind speeds will taper off across the basin
by sunrise on Monday. A surface ridge from the N will shift E and
allow strong SE to S return flow to develop in the western Gulf 
of Mexico by Tuesday morning. The strong return flow will expand 
to the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. It is possible 
that another strong cold front may enter the NW Gulf of Mexico by 
Wednesday morning. 


Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean. Only typical patches
of low clouds and isolated showers exist in a few spots. The 
trade winds are strongest over the central Caribbean. A Gale is
presently ongoing along the coast of N Colombia.  

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the S central 
Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night and increase to at or near 
gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night 
through Wednesday. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will 
prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
Sea from Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, move SE and extend
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sunday night, it 
will weaken from central-to-SE Cuba to the NW and N central coast 
of Honduras on Monday night, and then start to weaken and drift N 
from Cuba westward from Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. Fresh
to strong NW to N winds and seas to 8 ft are expected W of the 
front, from Sunday morning until Monday night.


Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N
Florida N of 29N and W of 78W. Upper level diffluence over the W
Atlantic is also producing scattered showers N of 26N and W of 
68W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to 
26N52W to 22N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-32N 
between 43W-52W. A 1033 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic 
near 34N28W. 

Over the W Atlantic, Weak high pressure will drift eastward from near 
32N69W toward Bermuda from tonight through Sunday morning. S 
winds will strengthen from tonight through Sunday, E of Florida, 
ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will push off the 
Florida coast on Sunday morning, then reach from 31N72W to coast 
of Cuba near 23N80W on Sunday night, from 30N65W to 26N70W to the 
coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday morning, from 27N65W to the coast
of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday night, and weakening and becoming 
stationary on Tuesday afternoon from 24N65W to the coast of Cuba 
near 22N77W. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either 
side of the front N of 28N and W of 65W from Sunday through 
Monday morning. The seas will build to near 18 feet in NW swell 
behind the front near 31N73W on Sunday night, taper off slightly
by Monday morning near 31N68W, and be near 13 ft near 31N65W by
Monday night. Expect fresh-to-strong winds N of 27N from 65W
westward, from Sunday morning until Monday morning. The wind
speeds will be tapering off and moving eastward with time, from
Monday morning until Tuesday morning. Fresh-to-strong winds will
funnel through the Straits of Florida from Sunday morning/ 
afternoon into Sunday night. Fresh-to-strong NE winds will be from
25N southward from 65W westward from Monday night until Tuesday
night, tapering off after Tuesday night. Seas of 8 feet will be S
of 25N, from 65W westward, and reaching the Straits of Florida,
from Tuesday morning until Wednesday afternoon, with broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow.

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