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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 152350

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 
06N11W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N36W to 
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection 
is from 02N to 07N E of 18W.


Fresh to strong northerly wind is across the Gulf of Mexico 
behind a a cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend to 
the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong SW winds 
are also in the NE basin ahead of the front. Isolated showers 
are occuring over the SE gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and 
the Florida Straits. 

The front will move eastward across the entire Gulf through 
tonight, with reinforcing cold air supporting strong NW winds 
and building seas over the northeast and north central Gulf 
tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the 
front and support generally tranquil marine conditions across 
the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will shift east of the 
area early next week, allowing winds and seas to increase over 
the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high pressure and 
lower pressure farther west over Texas.   


Moderate to fresh trades are across the eastern and central 
Caribean with the strongest winds being over the Colombia 
offshore waters. On the far NW Caribbean, the tail of a 
stationary front supports scattered to isolated showers over 
western Cuba, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters.

A cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move 
SE through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then weaken as it moves 
across the northwest Caribbean Sat. The front will stall from 
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night, then dissipate 
through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front 
north of the region will support the expansion of fresh to 
strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover 
most of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun 
through Wed night. This pattern will also support fresh to 
strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba by Tue. 


A cold front extends from 31N58W to 26N72W where it transitions 
to a stationary front that passes over the northern Bahamas, the 
Straits of Florida to the NW Caribbean. A second front is 
farther east extending from 31N50W to 25N65W. Isolated showers 
are behind the westernmost front, currently affecting the NW 
offshore waters. Scattered showers are ahead of the easternmost 
front, N of 24N between 35W and 50W as well as fresh to strong 
SW winds within 210 nm east of the boundary. This front will 
continue to move over the central Atlc and dissipate late Sat. 

Farther east, a 1032 mb high pressure centered near 410 nm SW of 
Portugal is supporting fresh to strong NE winds over a large 
area off the coast of Africa, east of 40E, including the Cape 
Verde Islands.

Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are in the NW forecast waters 
ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW waters tonight and 
reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat 
morning. The front is forecast to extend from 28N65W to eastern 
Cuba Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through Mon. 
Meanwhile, another front will move off the NE Florida coast late 
Sun night, move east and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by 
late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue.