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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 122319

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC. 


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico  
from the Mississippi Delta to Tamiahua, Mexico on Thu night, from 
the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri morning
and move E of area before sunrise on Sat. Gale-force winds are 
expected on Thursday night behind the front over the area north 
of 25N and west of 94W. These conditions will continue through
Friday evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N47W. 
Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 31W-47W.


A 1026 mb surface high is centered over northern Florida and
extending across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing across the area.

Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will precede a cold
front moving off the Texas coast by early Thursday with the front
reaching from the Mississippi Delta to Tamiahua, Mexico on Thu night, 
from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri 
morning and move E of area before sunrise on Sat. Strong to near 
gale force northerly flow west of the front will increase to gale-
force on Thursday evening over the northwest and west-central gulf
waters. Near gale force southerly flow expected east of the front
on Friday. The pressure gradient will relax this weekend with 
moderate west flow expected on Sat evening with seas subsided to 
less than 8 ft throughout the gulf by sunrise on Sun.


A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 
20N75W to 16N86W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. In
the eastern Caribbean, scattered showers are seen south of 16N
between 66W-72W just north of the ABC Islands. The remainder of
the Caribbean is relatively dry. Gentle to moderate trades winds 
are noted across the eastern and central portion of the basin,
while moderate to fresh winds prevail south of Cuba mainly west 
of 76W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean with nocturnal pulses to near-gale force off the 
northwest coast of Colombia. These winds will expand north across
the entire central Caribbean on Friday. The weak frontal boundary
across the west Caribbean will drift west-northwest and gradually
dissipate through early Friday. A cold front will enter the 
northwest Caribbean on Friday afternoon, and dissipate over the 
NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Large north swell will 
reach the Leewards on Saturday, and spread south through the 
northeast Atlantic passages during the weekend. 


A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N65W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 20N73W. Scattered showers are noted
along the front north of 28N. To the east, a 1027 mb surface high
is centered near 31N27W and extends across the remainder of the

The front is forecast to drift back north on Thursday and extend  
along 25N on Friday. Fresh to strong winds will develop along 
this boundary as strong high pressure moves east across the 
northern waters ahead of the next cold front to enter the
west Atlantic waters on Friday night. A strong pressure gradient 
between the front and the high pressure will support strong to 
near gale southerly return flow north of the Bahamas on Thursday 
night and Friday. The front is expected to reach from 31N68W to 
the central Bahamas on Sunday afternoon.

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