000
AXNT20 KNHC 282300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.9N 55.1W at 28/2100 
UTC or 460 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 2 
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas in excess
of 12 ft are within 300 nm N semicircle, 180 nm SE quadrant and 
120 nm SW quadrant, peaking to 20 ft. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is from 16N-21N between 50W-57W. Little change 
in strength is forecast during the next few days, but Philippe 
could dissipate during that time. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Philippe and Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 18.1N 46.2W at 28/2100 UTC
or 960 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas in excess
of 12 ft are within 150 nm E semicircle, and 90 nm NW quadrant, 
peaking to 14 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 
14N-19N between 38W-54W. Some gradual strengthening is forecast
during the next several days.


Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Philippe and Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 19W south of 19N. Scattered moderate  
convection is depicted from 05N to 13N between 13W and 20W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W to 10N28W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 05N44W. Aside from the
convection described wit the tropical wave above, no significant
convection is noted. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from north of Tampa, Florida area
to just south of New Orleans, Louisiana. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along and N of the front and E of 90W. A 
surface trough is analyzed from 26N81W to 23N87W. Scattered
showers prevail along the trough and E of 87W. Fresh NE to E 
winds and 4-5 ft seas are occurring to the north of the 
aforementioned stationary front. Elsewhere, gentle winds and 1-3 
ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front across the northern Gulf of Mexico
should move southward as a cold front this weekend. To the north 
of the front, fresh E winds are expected through the forecast 
period due to strong high pressure ridging over the southeastern 
United States.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Total precipitable water imagery continues to depict very moist 
air over the northwest Caribbean. A mid-level trough is located 
over western Cuba, where scattered moderate convection is 
occurring. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted in the Yucatan 
Channel and in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are depicted over the SW Caribbean in association to
the East Pacific monsoon trough. A deep layer trough over the 
central Caribbean is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the area. Moderate trades prevail over much of the basin, 
except for gentle over the far western Caribbean and over the far 
E portion of the basin. Seas range from 2-5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 18.9N 
55.5W Fri morning, 18.7N 55.9W Fri afternoon, 18.3N 56.2W Sat 
morning, 17.9N 56.4W Sat afternoon, 17.5N 57.0W Sun morning, and 
17.0N 57.6W Sun afternoon. Philippe will change little in 
intensity as it moves to near 18.6N 58.6W Mon afternoon. Rough 
seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands 
generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside toward 
the end of the week south of 17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft 
north of 17N into the weekend. Mainly moderate trade winds will 
prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical Storm 
Philippe and Rina.

A stationary front extends west-southwestward from 31N77W to 
Port Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds and 8-10 ft 
seas prevail north of 30N and west of 78W. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are located N of 26N between 74W-78W.  
Elsewhere N of 26N between 60W-78W gentle to moderate winds 
prevail with seas from 5-7 ft. The subtropical surface ridge 
extends east- west along 28/29N between 26W and 50W, anchored by a
1020 mb high pressure centered near 32N27W. From 26N to 31N 
between 30W and 60W, winds are light to moderate with 6-8 ft seas 
in mixed swell. Fresh to strong NE winds and 7-9 ft seas prevail 
north of the Cabo Verde Islands to 25N between the coast of Africa
and 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe will move 
to 18.9N 55.5W Fri morning, 18.7N 55.9W Fri afternoon, 18.3N 56.2W
Sat morning, 17.9N 56.4W Sat afternoon, 17.5N 57.0W Sun morning, 
and 17.0N 57.6W Sun afternoon. Philippe will change little in 
intensity as it moves to near 18.6N 58.6W Mon afternoon. Tropical
Storm Rina will move to 18.8N 46.9W Fri morning, 19.4N 47.9W Fri 
afternoon, 19.7N 48.9W Sat morning, 20.1N 50.1W Sat afternoon, 
20.6N 51.4W Sun morning, and 21.5N 53.3W Sun afternoon. Rina will 
change little in intensity as it moves to 24.2N 56.7W by Mon 
afternoon. Rough seas ahead of the storm are east of 63W, and will
continue to spread east of 68W through the end of the week. 
Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE winds and seas 8 to 9 ft will 
prevail through this evening north of the Bahamas and east of 
Florida in NE swell. 

$$
ERA