392 
AXNT20 KNHC 091038
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico waters 
beginning on Tue night and move quickly across the basin on Wed. 
Gale force winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf 
waters mainly W of 92W behind the front during that time. Rough to
very rough seas are expected in the area of strongest winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the area of Agadir, 
beginning this morning at 1200 UTC through at least 10/0000 UTC. 
Gale force N to NE winds with gusts are expected in this area. 

Please refer to the Meteo-France website for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ 
continues from that point to 02N41W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 01N to 07N and E of 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the western Gulf waters beginning on Tue night through
Wed.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans across the basin.  
Fresh NE winds are in the Straits of Florida. With this, moderate
to fresh winds prevail across the area, along with slight to
moderate seas.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will move offshore Texas 
Tue, then move quickly SE through the basin, and exit the region 
by Wed afternoon. Behind the front, strong to gale-force winds and
rapidly building seas can be expected. These hazardous conditions
will prevail through Thu, then high pressure settling into the 
northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the 
week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed from 18N69W to 12N73W. Fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas prevail across the S-central 
Caribbean mainly S of 15N between 74W and 81W. Fresh to strong NE 
winds and moderate seas are from 14N northward between 70W and 
74W. Two more areas of fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are
noted over the Windward Passage and S of Cuba. Moderate to fresh 
easterly wind flow is elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the region will
continue supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the
NW and central Caribbean, including offshore Colombia and through
the Windward Passage through tonight. On Tue, the high pressure 
will shift eastward into the central Caribbean, and winds will 
diminish to moderate to fresh, except off the coast of Colombia, 
where fresh to strong winds will prevail. Looking ahead, a cold 
front is likely to move through the Yucatan Channel Wed, then into
the NW Caribbean Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning issued
by Meteo France for the area of Agadir. 

A weakening cold front is located from 31N46W to 24N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either side of the
front. Rough seas are also noted near the front and N of 30N.
Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails with moderate to fresh NE
winds and moderate seas.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will dissipate tonight. 
Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida
Tue night ahead of the next cold front that will reach from 
31N78W to Fort Pierce, Florida, by Wed afternoon, and from 31N72W 
to western Cuba by Wed night. Strong to near gale-force N to NE 
winds and rough seas will rapidly build southward behind the front
through the end of the week. 

$$
ERA