000
AXNT20 KNHC 142325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jan 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell is 
impacting the central Atlantic. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the 
waters N of 22N between 29W and 54W. Seas are peaking around 15 ft
near 30N40W. The swell will shift eastward while subsiding 
tonight, with combined seas decreasing below 12 ft by early Wed. 
Looking ahead, another round of significant NW swell will impact 
the waters N of 25N between 40W and 70W starting Wed afternoon and
persisting through Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft 
possible.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 06N11W and 
extends to 05N13W. The ITCZ extends from 05N13W to 02S40W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N and W of 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary extends across the SE and south-central Gulf 
from the Straits of Florida to 22N93W. Meanwhile, a surface 
trough is analyzed from the south-central Bay of Campeche to the 
Texas coast near Port Mansfield. Fresh to strong winds are north 
of the front, as well as over the far SW Gulf W of the trough. S 
and E of the front, gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-10 ft 
range W of the front and 3-6 ft S and E of the front. 

For the forecast, the cold front that extends will slide E of the
area tonight, while a surface trough lingers over the western 
basin into Thu night. Strong N winds will prevail W of the trough.
At the end of the week, southerly winds may increase to fresh to 
strong ahead of the next cold front. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are over the 
south-central and SW basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and 
seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted over the north-central basin. Gentle 
to moderate trade winds, and seas at 3 to 5 ft, prevail over the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, large long-period NW to N swell will impact the
Atlantic passages and waters E of the Leeward and Windward
Islands into Wed. High pressure building across the western
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the
eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing
off Colombia as well as offshore Hispaniola into Fri night. 
Additional significant long period swell is likely to arrive into
Atlantic passages by Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
the significant swell in the Atlantic.

A cold front currently extends from 31N38W to 18N62W. Another 
cold front extends from 31N67W to 25N80W. Between the fronts, a 
1023 mb high is centered near 25N70W. Light to gentle winds are 
in the vicinity of the high, with gentle to moderate winds 
generally prevailing elsewhere. The main exception is in the 
vicinity of the Canary Islands, where moderate to fresh NE winds 
prevail, along with localized areas of strong NE winds between the
islands. Aside from the area discussed in the Special Features 
section above, seas 8 ft or greater cover much of the waters E of 
64W. W of 64W, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front in the central Atlantic
will slide east of the area tonight. Large swell E of 64W will 
gradually subside through tonight. The west Atlantic cold front  
will reach from 31N52W to the SE Bahamas by Wed morning, then 
continue E before stalling over the far SE waters Thu night.  

$$
ERA