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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


830 
AXNT20 KNHC 100558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Feb 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: 
A tight pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure
northeast of the northwest Bahamas and lower pressure over
northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong to near-
gale winds in the south-central and portions of the southwestern 
Caribbean through Thu night. These winds will peak at gale-force 
during the nighttime and early morning hours offshore of 
Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas are expected to peak at 11 to 13 ft 
near the highest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coastal 
border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 
03N22W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N22W across 
00N30W to north of Belem, Brazil at 00N47W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 05N
between 10W and 20W, and near the ITCZ from the Equator to 04N
between 20W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1023 mb high over 
the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are present at the northeastern
Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft 
seas are found across the Florida Straits, north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon
and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through late week, 
possibly increasing some at the end of the week as the pressure 
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front that is likely to move off
the Texas coast Fri. Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas into late week. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning
offshore Colombia.

A surface trough is generating widely scattered showers south of
Jamaica. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward
from a 1028 mb high at the north-central Atlantic to a 1023 mb
northeast of the northwest Bahamas is sustaining a trade-wind
pattern across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area,
fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE to ENE winds and 7 to 
10 ft seas are seen at the central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to
E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are evident for the eastern and 
portion of of southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE 
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E trade winds and rough seas are 
expected across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean 
through the week, with winds pulsing to strong through the 
Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of 
Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across
the remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near
the Lesser Antilles and their passages into the eastern Caribbean
Sea through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front runs southwestward from west of Madeira
across 31N20W to 28N23W, then continues as a shear line to 24N37W.
Patchy showers are occurring near and up to 150 nm northwest of 
this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for 
additional convection in the Atlantic Ocean. A broad surface 
ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb high near 33N39W to a 
1023 mb northeast of the northwest Bahamas. These features are 
supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed 
moderate swells north of 27N between 35W and the 
Georgia/northeastern Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from
07N to 27N between 35W and Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to
fresh ENE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean west of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will 
prevail south of 25N into the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail into late week. E swell will bring 
rough seas northeast of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico into 
the weekend. 

$$

Chan