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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 200417

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0415 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 04N36W. 
The ITCZ extends from 04N36W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 09N and east of 


A few showers are seen on satellite imagery in the SE Gulf of
Mexico waters, while fairly tranquil conditions prevail in the
rest of the basin. A weak pressure gradient is evident across the
Gulf, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds off
northern Yucatan and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight to
moderate seas are found in the Gulf, with the highest seas around
5 ft near 27N97W. Dense haze is also occurring in the western and
central Gulf from agricultural fires in Mexico, including the Bay
of Campeche.

For the forecast, a cold front extends across the northern 
Florida Peninsula. Ahead of it, scattered moderate convection and 
gusty moderate winds are noted S of 26N and E of 88W. This 
activity is supported by a mid to upper-level trough that extends 
from the southeastern U.S. coast southwestward to the south-
central Gulf. This weather will continue to shift E to SE across 
the eastern Gulf, reaching the vicinity of the Florida Keys Mon 
night and the Straits of Florida Tue. Gusty winds along with rough
seas will prevail near the convection. Moderate to fresh SE winds
prevail elsewhere, with slight seas. Hazy conditions due to 
agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western 
Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 


A few storms that developed earlier today over Panama are 
affecting the nearshore waters of this country in the SW 
Caribbean Sea. A generally dry environment is present elsewhere. 
Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by high pressure
centered NE of the Caribbean. This is supporting widespread fresh
to strong E to NE winds in the south-central basin, including the
Gulf of Venezuela. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass. Seas are 6-9 ft in this area. Additionally, 
moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring in the north- 
central and SE Caribbean, and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these 
waters are 3-6 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight seas are prevalent.

Dense haze caused from agricultural fires in Mexico is noted
across portions of the NW Caribbean, northward from the northern
coast of Honduras to southern Quintana Roo, including the Gulf of

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic surface ridge extends westward 
along 25N and into the N Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure over SE Mexico is supporting
pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras,
and fresh to locally strong E winds in the south- central Caribbean.
The winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish to fresh speeds 
overnight. The fresh to strong E winds in the south-central Caribbean
will shift eastward to offshore of NW Venezuela through Tue night
and diminish early on Wed. A deep layer trough will dig southward
across the western Caribbean Mon night through Fri, supporting 
active weather E of 80W Tue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE 
winds will develop in the central Caribbean Tue and shift eastward
through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due 
to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf
of Honduras, but appears to be thinning out.


A cold front extends from a low pressure near Bermuda to NE
Florida. A combination of an upper level trough entering the
western Atlantic and tropical moisture support a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms west of 75W. The remainder of the SW North
Atlantic, west of 55W, are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to 
fresh southerly winds are found north of 26N and west of 60W. Seas
in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly 
winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present south of 23N and west of 65W.
Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle winds and slight seas

The central and eastern Atlantic are influenced by the 1024 mb
high pressure system south of the Azores. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa sustain
moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 12N and 
east of 22W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will sink 
southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early
Mon, and move southeastward and stall from near 31N72W to SE 
Florida late Tue. A trough will develop southeast of the weakening
front and extend into the central Bahamas early on Wed, and drift
eastward through Fri night. Low pressure is expected to form 
along the trough near 24N68W Thu evening and move NE through Fri