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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1040 mb high pressure off the
Mid-Atlantic coast and a 1010 mb Colombian low will sustain fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean
into early next week. Gale-force NE winds off the northwestern
coast of Colombia will diminish before sunrise today. Seas to 11
ft will gradually subside to 10 ft this afternoon.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
A 1040 mb high pressure currently off the US Mid-Atlantic coast is
going to slide eastward across the western Atlantic the next few
days. Meanwhile, a persistent surface trough is quasi-stationary
southeast of Bermuda between 40W and 50W. Tightening gradient
between these two features is supporting strong to near-gale NE
winds north of 24N between 44W and 61W. The combination of large
wind waves and existing northeasterly swell will cause seas to
build and reach 12 to 15 ft this morning. From late this afternoon
through Sun, these seas will peak at 12 to 17 ft. Once the high 
has moved east of 45W on Sun night, decreasing gradient should 
allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next week.

Marine interests in the above areas need to monitor this situation
closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas 
and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: 
A very strong high pressure of 1034 mb is S of the Azores Islands
at 37N30W. A tight gradient between this high and a broad surface
trough across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-force winds
in the Meteo-France Marine Zone of Agadir, near the coast of
Morocco. Seas to 13 ft are ongoing in the general area. Please 
read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at 
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for 
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 11N16W to 04N22W to
02N28W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 09S to
07N between 00W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from SW Alabama to a 1015 mb low 
pressure in the northwest Gulf near 27N93W. From this low, a
surface trough extends SW to Veracruz, Mexico. Upper-level
diffluent flow is supporting heavy showers and scattered tstms
over the north-central and NE Gulf, which is limiting visibility.
Otherwise, surface ridging extends from a strong high pressure
over the NW Atlantic waters into the E Gulf of Mexico. This is
supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds E of 90W and light to
gentle variable winds elsewhere. Seas are slight to moderate
basin-wide. 

For the forecast, a low pressure area will form over north- 
central Mexico Sun, allowing the front to lift northward as a warm
front over the northwest Gulf. Looking ahead, expect moderate SE 
winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Gulf Mon into
Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough over 
the southwest Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about an on-going Gale 
Warning.

A tight gradient between a 1040 mb high pressure off the Mid- 
Atlantic coast and a 1010 mb Colombian low continue to support
gale-force NE winds off the coast of Colombia and fresh to strong
NE to E winds along with 7 to 10 ft seas over the central and NE basin.
Moderate trades and seas dominate the remainder Caribbean waters.  

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area over 
the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE to E winds 
over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras 
through mid week. Gale-force winds off Colombia will diminish 
before sunrise today. Fresh to strong NE winds in the NE Caribbean
will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds late Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning on Gale
Winds and Significant Swell.

A cold front extends from 30N53W to 28N69W where it transitions
to a warm front that continues to 30N73W. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough prevails, which continues to support an area of
showers and tstms N of 22N between 40W and 51W. See the special
features section for information regarding winds and seas
associated with these features. 

In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NNE to ESE winds and 
seas at 8 to 12 ft in large northeasterly swell are found north 
of 14N between the Africa coast and 40W, including the Canary and
Cabo Verde Islands. In the tropical Atlantic, winds are mainly gentle
to moderate from the NE W of 30W while seas ranges between 5 to 7
ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will dissipate
later today. Expect increasing NE winds and building seas 
northeast of the Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda into early next 
week between high pressure north of the area and a broad trough 
between 40W and 50W north of 21N. Looking ahead, the trough will 
dissipate and the high pressure will lift to the northeast, 
although fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will persist
north of 25N and east of 65W into mid-week. 

$$
Ramos