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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 182334

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2320 UTC.


A tropical wave is along 31W from 04N-19N, moving west around 15 
kt. Scattered showers are from 07N-14N between 26W-33W.

A tropical wave extends from 28N45W to 24N46W to 08N43W, moving 
SW around 15 kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave 
originated over the NE Atlantic. The wave is traveling through a 
dry environment, and no convection is noted north of 10N.
Scattered showers are seen along the southern part of the wave
south of 09N.

A tropical wave is along 59/60W from 07N-23N, moving west at 10-15
kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on satellite 
imagery. Isolated moderate convection is over the N apex of the 
wave from 20N-26N between 57W-61W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are seen over portions of the Windward Islands and E
Caribbean from 13N-15N between 60W-65W. 

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W from 09N-23N, moving west 
around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are mainly confined to
over land areas of Hispaniola, Cuba and Jamaica as well as NW 
Venezuela and N Colombia.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
12N16W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 09N30W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 08N33W to 03N45W to the coast
of N Brazil near 03N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the 
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 
08N-14N between the west coast of Africa and 19W.


Weak surface ridging is over much of the Gulf of Mexico, extending
from the subtropical ridge over the west Atlantic. ASCAT from this
morning shows that gentle winds continue to prevail today over
much of the basin, with some moderate SE winds over the
southwestern and far western Gulf. Above normal mid-level
atmospheric moisture content in the eastern Gulf is leading to 
scattered showers and tstorms in a box extending from the Florida 
Keys to 22N86W to 24N90W to Clearwater Florida to the Florida 
Keys. To the north of that box, over the NE Gulf of Mexico, 
isolated showers and tstorms are present. To the east of the box, 
scattered tstorms are over the Florida Peninsula. A separate area 
of scattered moderate convection is found in the SW Gulf of Mexico
from 21N-24N between 94W-97W.

A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast 
through Sun night, then weaken on Mon. Gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds will generally continue across the basin, except 
fresh to occasionally strong winds to the NW of the Yucatan 
peninsula during the evening and overnight hours through the 


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave
over the Central Caribbean and the wave approaching the Lesser
Antilles. ASCAT from this morning shows strong winds from 11N-16N
between 71W-79W, with fresh winds surrounding the strong winds
from 10N-18N between 64W-83W. Fresh trades are also in the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate winds are elsewhere. GOES-16 water vapor
channels show that relatively dry air covers portions of the
central and NW Caribbean. The only areas of significant
precipitation in the central and W Caribbean are near the land
areas of Cuba and Jamaica, as well as in the far SW Caribbean
south of 11N and west of 80W. Scattered tstorms are also along the
N coast of central Venezuela south of 11N between 63W-66W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast 
period. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Honduras each night through Sun night. 


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
waves traversing the basin. 

A pair of weak upper-level lows over the western Atlantic are 
near 26N75W and 26N65W, respectively. The western one is aiding in
scattered showers and tstorms from 23N-31N between 70W-80W.
Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin, with a 1024
mb high near 29N57W and a 1026 mb high just S of the Azores.

Over the western Atlantic, a high pressure ridge along 29N/30N 
will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through 
Tue night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong between the 
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, primarily during the evening 
hours through the period.

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