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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201725
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 28W from 02N-14N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted in the 
wave's environment at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 14N41W to 08N43W to
01N43W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted by model
guidance and scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-14N between 34W-44W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 75W from 05N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is 
from 10N-19N between 70W-79W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 07N20W to 05N26W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 08N37W to 06N42W. The ITCZ resumes 
once again W of a tropical wave near 05N45W to 04N51W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves, widely scattered 
moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 03N-08N
between 10W-18W.  

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/1500 UTC, a 1015 mb high is centered over the Florida
Panhandle near 30N86W. The tail end of a cold front extends from 
central Florida near Titusville to Tampa Florida to the SE Gulf of
Mexico near 25N87W. Scattered moderate convection is over the SE 
Gulf from 22N-26N between 83W-87W. Elsewhere, widely scattered
moderate convection is over the western Bay of Campeche from
19N-22N between 94W-98W. Of notein the upper levels, an upper
level high is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico near
24N89W. Strong subsidence is over the central Gulf. 

Marine conditions will continue to improve rapidly across the NE 
Gulf today as Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor moves from North 
Carolina toward the north Atlantic. A cold front will reach the NW
Gulf Mon night, extend across the basin from central Florida to 
NE Mexico by Wed morning. Strong NE winds are expected behind the 
front Tue and Tue night, then the front will weaken and dissipate 
by Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Widely scattered moderate convection is near the ABC Islands from
11N-14N between 65W-70W.

Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the SW Caribbean near 13N79W moving W, and enhancing
convection.

A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds 
across most of the the basin through Thu night, except for fresh 
to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras today and Mon. An active
tropical wave near 75W will move westward and reach the western 
Caribbean by Tue. No tropical cyclones are expected over the basin
during the next several days. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N80W to Titusville
Florida near 29N81W. Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is
over the N Bahamas from 26N-29N between 76W-78W. A 1021 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 33N64W. A central Atlantic cold
front extends from 31N49W to 24N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm E of the front. A surface trough is over the E
Atlantic from 27N33W to 23N36W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 25N-30N between 29W-38W. A large upper level low centered
near 38N35W is also enhancing the E Atlantic convection. The tail
end of a cold front is near the Canary Islands from 31N10W to
28N16W to 27N20W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands. 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor over North Carolina will continue 
northeastward toward the North Atlantic. Nestor will generate near
gale force S to SW winds in the coastal waters east of N Florida 
this morning, quickly diminishing during the day. Weak high 
pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will
move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening and become stationary
over central Florida and north of the Bahamas by Thu. No new 
tropical cyclones are expected over the forecast waters during the
next several days. 

$$
Formosa