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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


497 
AXNT20 KNHC 180420
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Feb 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to 
move into the NW Gulf Wed. The front will sweep across the basin 
through Thu night, with its western portion also stalling. A 
trough will develop from it over the southwestern Gulf on Fri and 
linger through Sat night while weakening. Near gale north winds 
with frequent gusts to gale force will follow the front over the 
NW Gulf Wed while gale force north winds will be possible west of 
the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed and Wed night and off Veracruz, 
Mexico Wed night through Thu night. These winds will produce rough
to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft Wed night off Tampico.
Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW 
swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas of 12 to 21 ft across
the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic, north of a line 
from 31N50W to 20N44W to 31N20W. This swell will subside very 
gradually while shifting eastward toward the Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands tonight and Tue. Reinforcing NW swell of 12 to 18 ft will
follow by Wed over the waters north of 27N between 35W and 55W,
then subside to 12 to 15 ft as it moves east of 35W Fri.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 02N20W to 00N25W.
The ITCZ extends from 00N25W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate
convectin is noted from 01N to 03N between 15W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features about the Gale Warning over the
western Gulf.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to north of
the Yucatan Peninsula then into the far southwest Gulf near
Coatazacoalcos, Mexico. A couple of weak troughs are analyzed over
the west-central Florida Peninsula, and south of Louisiana, but
otherwise a broad ridge extends from off the Carolinas toward the
coast of Texas. This pattern is supporting fresh NE to E winds off
the north coast of Yucatan, moderate SE winds elsewhere over the
western Gulf, moderate NE winds over the south-central Gulf and
gentle NE winds in the northeast Gulf. Swell to 8 ft lingers off
the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, with generally 4 to 6 ft seas
elsewhere over the western Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft in the eastern
Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate 
overnight. In addition to the impact of the next front described
in the Special Featuers section over the western Gulf, fresh to 
strong winds are expected elsewhere through the period, becoming 
more confined to the waters north of 22N and west of 90W Fri 
through Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with
near-gale force winds off Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 
ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are 
occurring in the north- central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, mostly fresh trade winds and moderate seas are
expected across the central, eastern and portions of the
southwestern part of the basin for the rest the week, except for
strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate
seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through Thu. A
cold front will sink into the Yucatan Channel and vicinity
waters Thu night into Fri, and weaken as it moves across the
northwestern part of the basin through Sat. Fresh northeast to
east winds will follow the front. Otherwise, rough seas in east
swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through early
Fri, subsiding afterward. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Significant Swell.

A cold front extending from 31N63W transitions to a stationary 
front near Andros Island to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to 
fresh SW winds are noted east of the front to 55W, north of 29N. 
The subtropical ridge is displaced southward ahead of the front, 
anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 27N48W, and 
extending westward along 27N to 65W. Gentle breezes are noted 
along the ridge north of 20N, and west of the front. Moderate to 
fresh trade winds are noted south of 20N, south of the ridge. 
Farther east, fresh to strong NW winds follow a cold front moving 
across the Atlantic north of 25N and east of 35W. In addition to 
the large NW swell described in the Special Features section, 
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted west of 55W and north of 20N,
and in excess of 8 ft elsewhere primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N58W
to 29N65W early Tue, then become stationary and weaken from 
29N55W to 29N65W early Wed. Fresh to strong southwest winds ahead 
of the front north of 29N will diminish late tonight as the front 
moves eastward. Rough seas over much of the waters E of 65W will 
prevail through tonight. Fresh to strong southeast winds will 
develop over the central and northeast Florida offshore waters 
early Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the 
coast Wed afternoon. This front will reach from near 31N76W to 
Stuart, Florida Wed night, from near 31N65W to the southeastern 
Bahamas and eastern Cuba Thu night, from near 29N55W to the 
Windward Passage Fri night and begin to weaken as it reaches from 
near 26N55W to 22N64W to the Windward Passage Sat night. Fresh to 
strong winds are expected ahead and behind this second front north
of about 27N through Fri. Strong high pressure will build Sat and
Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant tight gradient 
will bring fresh to strong northeast winds west of the front to 
the Straits of Florida primarily south of 25N beginning Fri night.

$$
Christensen