NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Nov 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: Large long-period NW swell, with 
wave periods of 13-14 seconds is propagating across the north- 
central Atlantic waters, with seas greater than 12 ft north 26N 
between 51W and a line from 31N37W to 26N44W. Seas are currently 
peaking near 15 ft (4.5 M) along 31N. The swell will gradually 
subside through Fri, allowing for seas to lower below 12 ft.
Mariners should use extreme caution over these waters, depending 
on vessel type and cargo. Additional pulses of NW swell are 
expected to reach the waters east of 55W by Fri night, briefly 
building seas to 12 ft north of 30N roughly between 40 and 47W 
through early Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 
08N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N30W to 03N38W and 
o near 04N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen within 180 nm south of the trough between 13W-16W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 16W-19W and within 
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from 26N91W to the coast of Mexico near 
18.5N93W. To its northeast, a ridge stretches from the Mid-
Atlantic region south-southwestward to the NE Gulf. The associated 
gradient is generally allowing for gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds across the eastern and central Gulf waters north 
of 25N and moderate northeast to east winds over the southeastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida. Both buoy observations and recent
altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas of 3 ft or less
over the basin, with the exception  of slightly higher seas of 
3 to 4 ft over the central Gulf and in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh east to southeast 
winds are expected over the north-central Gulf, north and east of
the trough axis through late tonight as the trough approaches the
Texas coast. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds 
will then develop over the western basin on Fri and continue 
through Sat as a complex low pressure system moves over the south-
central U.S. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move into 
the northwest Gulf on Sun and progress southeastward through the 
basin into Mon evening. Widespread strong N to NE winds and rough 
seas can be expected behind the front, and gale- force winds and 
very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz Mon morning 
into the evening hours. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue 
evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trade winds are over the basin, except for
fresh trade winds in the south-central portion of the sea.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except for higher seas of 3 to 5
ft from 11N to 15N between 68W and 80W. 

A trough is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea from near 14N82W 
to 10N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm 
east of the trough from 11N to 14N. A weak trough is over the 
eastern Caribbean along 64W. No significant convection is 
occurring is noted.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds and moderate seas will 
prevail over the Caribbean through Fri afternoon, with winds 
pulsing to fresh speeds in the south-central basin and offshore of
southern Hispaniola. Winds will freshen over the central and 
eastern Caribbean Fri night into early next week as a surface 
trough moves westward through the basin, and high pressure builds 
to the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be possible
in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, rough seas in north
well are expected over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by 
late tonight. A new east to southeast swell set will support 
rough seas through the Atlantic Passages this weekend into early 
next week. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to enter 
the northwestern Caribbean early next week, leading to widespread 
fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the wake of the 
front. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a NW
swell event that is impacting the central Atlantic waters with 
very rough seas.

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N33W to 30N40W, where it
transitions to a stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas and 
to near 21.5N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
evident northwest of the boundary west of about 65W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere northwest and north of
of the boundary. High pressure, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 
26N40W and by a 1022 mb high near 29.5N26W dominates the 
remainder of the discussion waters north of 18N. A weak trough
extends from 17N51W to 07N53W. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are east of the trough from 10N to 14N between 44W 
and trough, and also west of the trough to near 57W from 10N to
13N. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes generally 
depict light to gentle anticyclonic winds over the waters north of
22N east of 51W, and north of 19N west of 51W, except for an area
of gentle to moderate east winds south of 27N west of 70W. The 
scatterometer satellite data passes indicate mostly fresh trade 
winds south of 22N east of 51W and south of 19N between 51W and 
the Lesser Antilles. Aside from the significant swell event 
discussed in the Special Features section above, seas greater than
8 ft cover the waters north of 20N between a line from 29N35W to 
20N56W and 64W. Elsewhere, seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere east of
72W, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft east of 50W and lower 
seas of 3 to 4 ft west of 72W and 3 ft or less within the area of 
the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in north swell will 
expand east of 65W and southeastward to the waters north of 20N 
tonight. A new NW swell associated with a storm system passing 
north of the area will reinforce rough seas east of 65W Fri 
morning through Sat morning. Moderate or weaker winds are expected
over the waters through much of Fri, with occasionally fresh E 
winds developing south of 25N Fri night. Looking ahead, moderate 
to fresh south to southwest winds may develop offshore of Florida
late this weekend ahead of a cold front moving through the 
southeastern U.S. The cold front will push off the coast early 
next week and progress southeastward into the central Atlantic, 
leading to fresh to strong winds and building seas behind the 
front. 

$$
Aguirre