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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032343
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 04 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure 
gradient between a strong 1040 mb high pressure centered to the 
southeast of Nova Scotia, and a quasi-stationary surface trough 
over the central subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting strong
to near gale-force northeast winds and very rough seas of 12 to 
16 ft north of 25N between 45W and 61W, with a period of 10 
seconds. These hazardous marine conditions will persist across 
the forecast waters east of 60W through Mon. Afterward, winds and
seas will gradually decrease over much of the area through the 
week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the 
Liberia/Sierra Leone border near 07N12W and continues 
southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01N30W
to 03N40W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 300 
nm southeast of the trough between the coast of Africa and 15W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ 
between 30W-36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends from the far North Atlantic southwestward 
across northern Florida and to the north-central Gulf. A trough 
is analyzed from near 28N90W to 27N94W. Another trough extends 
from 23N94W to 19N95W. The gradient between the high pressure 
and the trough supports light to gentle east-southeast winds. 
Seas across the basin are 2-4 ft, except for slightly higher 
seas of 3-5 ft over the central Gulf and eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered showers and 
thunderstorms moving southeastward over the central and eastern 
Gulf waters from 25N to 27N between 83W-89W. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 26N east of 
85W, and from 25N to 28N between 89W-93W. Areas of light haze
are present south of 25N and west of 91W.

For the forecast, light to gentle east to southeast winds and 
slight seas prevail basin-wide. Moderate to fresh southeast winds 
will develop over the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Tue 
evening. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds will resume
across the basin Tue night through Thu. Fresh to strong 
southeast winds will develop in the central Gulf Thu night ahead 
of the next cold front, which will move into the western Gulf 
Fri. Moist air moving over cooler waters along the northern Gulf 
is expected to bring areas of dense sea fog to some locations 
along and offshore the Gulf coast from Texas to the Floria 
panhandle in advance of the forecast cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging extends from very strong high pressure 
that is located over the north-central Atlantic southwestward 
to across the northern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean 
with seas of 8 to 10 ft from 11N to 15N between 72W and 76W, 
including the waters adjacent to Colombia. Fresh northeast winds
are from 11N to 15N between 76W-80W, where seas are 6-9 ft in 
northeast to east swell. Mostly moderate northeast to east winds 
are elsewhere over the basin, except west of 85W where winds are 
east-southeast in direction. Seas elsewhere are 4-7 ft.

Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow with
scattered showers, are moving westward across the basin from 13N
to 17N.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure north of the 
area will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds over the south-central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of 
Honduras through the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES Section for details about a
central Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

Latest scatterometer satellite data passes show moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds east of the Bahamas to near 69W. Seas 
with these winds are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate east to
southeast winds are west of the Bahamas, except for gentle east 
winds north of 29N and west of 79W. Seas are 6-8 ft west of the 
Bahamas, except for 5 to 7 ft in east swell north of 29N and west 
of 79W. A quasi-stationary trough is analyzed from 21N48W, 
northward to low pressure of 1015 mb at 24N48W, and continues to 
30N47W. Satellite imagery shows areas of moderate to heavy rain 
with embedded scattered showers isolated thunderstorms from 23N 
to 30N and between 38W-49W. A tight pressure gradient between 
the low and very strong high pressure of 1040 mb over the north 
Atlantic to the southeast of Nova Scotia is creating strong to 
near gale-force winds from about 25N to 31N and between 43W-58W. 
Seas with these winds are 13 to 16 ft. The combination of a 1030 
mb high that is south of the Azores near 34N28W and a trough 
over northwest Africa is producing fresh to strong northeast to 
east winds and rough seas as far south as 13N, including the 
Cape Verde Islands. Seas are 8-11 ft with these winds. Gentle to 
moderate winds northeast to east winds are over the tropical 
Atlantic west of about 40W along with seas of 5-6 ft. Buoy data 
northeast of the Leeward Islands and north of Puerto Rico 
indicates seas of 7-10 ft due to long-period northeast swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northeast winds and 
rough to very rough seas associated with a surface trough over 
the central subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across the 
offshore waters east of 60W through Mon. Afterward, winds and 
seas will gradually decrease over much of the area through the 
week. Winds and seas will increase offshore northeast Florida by
midweek ahead of the next cold front. This front is forecast to
move off the coast of Florida Thu, and extend from near Bermuda 
to central Florida Fri. 

$$
Aguirre