Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 170005

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


A 1007 mb low pressure center is in Guatemala near 16N90W. This
low pressure center is part of a broad area of low pressure, a 
Central American Gyre. Widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America and Mexico.
This weather system is expected to move westward with time. The 
probability of tropical cyclone development for the Atlantic Basin
is low. The potential for inland heavy rainfall, flash flooding 
and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain is high. Please, 
refer to your local meteorological service for specific 
information about this potentially dangerous weather pattern.

A stationary front passes through south central Louisiana to a
1015 mb low pressure center that is near 29N94W. The stationary
front continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 23N95W,
to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W, and it curves westward and
northwestward to 20N99W, inland in Mexico, to 25N101W. NW-to-N
GALE-force winds are from 26N southward from the front westward.
Expect sea heights to range from 8 feet to 12 feet. Expect the
GALE-force winds to continue for another 24 hours or so.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/28W from 14N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is
from 05N to 17N between Africa and 30W.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 21N southward. It is moving
through the area of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 08N to 23N between 55W
and 63W. It is possible that some of this precipitation also may
be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 20N and SE
Cuba southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in
the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W 
to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 09N24W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N28W and extends to the coast
of South America near 00N49W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ. 


A stationary front is over the W Gulf of Mexico. A Gale is in the
cold sector S of 26W. See the special features section above.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from 28N-30N 
between 93W-94W. Similar convection is over the Bay of Campeche 
from 19N-22N between 95W-98W. Scattered showers are over the
central Gulf from 22N-26N between 88W-92W. The remainder of the 
Gulf has mainly 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds, and mostly fair 
weather. The front is expected to remain stationary for the next
few days. 


A tropical wave over the central Caribbean is forecast to become 
diffuse and ill-defined by Wed. Another tropical wave is forecast
to move into the eastern Caribbean tonight.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over 
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean from 08N-15N between 
81W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia from 
04N-10N between 72W-78W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection
is over the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola,
from 18N-20N between 60W-72W. This convection is mostly due to
upper level diffluence. 

See the special features section above for more information 
about heavy rainfall associated with the Central American Gyre.  


See above about the tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic. 

A 1023 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 33N65W.  
pressure prevails across the Atlantic. A surface trough is in the
east-central Atlantic from 26N38W to 17N35W enhancing trade wind 
showers north of 19N between 30W-45W. This area of showers is 
moving west at 10-15 kt.

For additional information please visit


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Oct-2018 00:05:52 UTC