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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 05N to 18N southward 
and moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 06N-09N between 25W-30W. This weak wave is mainly
identifiable via 700 mb trough diagnostics.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 18N southward and
moving west around 20 kt. No significant convection is noted 
currently in association with the wave. However, the wave is 
apparent as a trough in the surface winds.

A Caribbean tropical wave was reanalyzed to 76W from 13N 
southward through western Colombia, and moving west around 10 to 
15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this tropical 
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the coast of Senegal at 14N17W to
09N30W to 07N40W. At this time, there is no coherent ITCZ west of
the monsoon trough. In addition to the convection associated with
the tropical wave near 29W, scattered moderate convection exists 
from 07N-10N east of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is noted over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, 
near the southeast Texas Coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
is east of this trough from 22N to 27N between 87W. Surface 
ridging extends westward from 1018 mb high pressure near 26N86W 
into northeast Mexico. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are
evident across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift westward and 
dominate the Gulf region during the upcoming weekend then 
reorganize over the E Gulf by early next week, with little change
in winds and seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent ship and buoy observations along with earlier scatterometer
satellite data indicate mostly moderate to fresh trade winds
across much of the eastern and central Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft
seas. Observations also indicate there is fresh to strong trade
winds along the coast of northeast Colombia and northwest
Venezuela, as well as the ABC Islands. Moderate E winds and 2 to 4
ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A few showers and
thunderstorms are noted near Jamaica, but little activity is noted
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, freshening tradewinds are expected across E and
central portions of the Caribbean through tonight as the
Atlantic ridge builds modestly across the W Atlantic. Fresh to
strong trades will prevail across south central portions as well
as the south central coast of Hispaniola through Sun night
before the ridge begins to weaken. Strong winds to around 30 kt
are expected at night near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela Fri night through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic ridge extends west-southwest from the 1029 mb Azores
High across central Atlantic to northeast Florida. The ridge is 
sustaining light to gentle trades across all of the waters, except
for fresh to strong E winds just north of Hispaniola. Seas are 
6-7 ft south of 22N and 4-5 ft north of 22N. In addition to the 
convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 30N 
between 70W-75W in association with a sharp upper-level trough.

For the forecast west of 65W, the Azores high will dominate the 
forecast waters through the period, while a surface trough will 
remain over or just off the coast of the SE United States. Expect 
fresh easterly winds late afternoon through the night just off the
north coast of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward 
Passage, most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SW 
winds are expected across the far NW waters Sun night through Mon 
night. 

$$
Christensen