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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211037

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.


A gale is in effect for the coast of N Colombia from 11N-13N
between 73W-76W, with seas 10-12 ft, until 21/1200 UTC. This
forecast is repeated for the same area from 22/0000 UTC to 
22/1200 UTC. The surface pressure gradient tightens just enough at
night to produce this gale.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W from 04N-19N, 
moving W at 15-20 kt. At this time, no significant convection is 
noted in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are from 04N- 
09N between 20W-27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 04N-20N, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. At this time, no significant convection is 
noted in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are from 05N- 
10N between 46W-53W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 62W from 04N-20N, 
moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N- 
11N between 53W-60W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 06N-18N, 
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
inland over N Colombia. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
12N17W to 09N20W to 07N34W. The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 
06N48W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N51W and
extends to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Besides the 
convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, 
scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 33W-46W. 


A 1019 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 31N83W. 5-10 kt 
anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf, while the remainder of 
the Gulf has 10-15 kt SE winds. Radar imagery shows isolated 
moderate convection over the Straits of Florida and the north 
central Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the 
E Bay of Campeche producing scattered showers. Of note in the 
upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf
near 28N86W. 

A ridge will prevail along the northern Gulf coast through the 
early part of the week, then start to retreat eastward midweek. 
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will continue across most of the 
basin, except fresh to locally strong winds will pulse to the W of
the Yucatan peninsula tonight and Monday night. 


Refer to the sections above for details on the gale, and tropical
wave. 20-30 kt winds are noted elsewhere over the central

Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Gulf of 
Honduras, Belize, NW Honduras, and E Guatemala, from 15N-18N
between 87W-90W. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands 
and Puerto Rico. More showers are over the NW Caribbean. 

High pressure N of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through next 
week. Winds will pulse to gale force each night along the coast 
of Colombia through Sun night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. 


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin. 

Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 23N-28N between 
76W-80W to include the N Bahamas. A surface trough is near the S
Bahamas from 26N70W to 21N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the trough. A 1020 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 29N63W.
A 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N20W. 

Over the W Atlantic, the S Bahamas trough will reach the Florida 
coast on Monday evening with showers. A ridge along 29N/30N will 
maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the 
region through Tuesday night. The ridge will start retreating 
eastward on Tuesday night, enabling a trough to move into the NW 
waters on Wednesday morning. Fresh to occasionally strong E winds 
will pulse N of Hispaniola each night through the middle of next 

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